NBA Race For Playoffs: Which Western Conference Team Will Clinch The 8th Seed?

NBA is seeing the last of regular season games inside the bubble this week. The league has had a great restart on the Orlando campus and will soon reach its first checkpoint – the playoffs. The league structured a unique eight-game regular season to allow all teams within four games of the eighth seed a chance at qualification. While the Eastern Conference brought along a battered Washington Wizards team that didn’t change the status quo – the Western Conference is a battlefield.

Memphis Grizzlies entered the bubble comfortably seated eighth. However, injuries in the bubble mean that the Grizzlies have gone 1-6 in the bubble, relinquishing the eighth seed to the Portland Trail Blazers. The Phoenix Suns have surprised everyone by going undefeated in the bubble and bringing themselves half a game within Portland and tied with Memphis. San Antonio Spurs seem hell-bent on extending their playoff streak, also tied with Phoenix and Memphis.

Portland faces the Brooklyn Nets (6-2) in their last game. The Grizzlies face the best team in the league, the Milwaukee Bucks (3-4). The undefeated Phoenix Suns will look to make it a clean 8-0 against the Dallas Mavericks (3-4), a team they beat earlier in the bubble. Finally, the Spurs face the Utah Jazz (2-5).

All four teams have just one more game left to play, and this race can now swing in any direction.

NBA playoff combinations

There are six likely matchup combinations available. The most likely one has Portland face Memphis. Both teams need to win their games, irrespective of any other result to make this happen. However, the Grizzlies are 1-6 so this may not be as easy for them.

For the Suns to get a shot at the Blazers, they will need the Grizz to drop their game while Portland wins theirs. For San Antonio to get Portland, they will need to hope that Memphis and Phoenix lose their games while they and Portland win theirs.

Currently, Portland occupies the eighth seed with a record of 34-39. They are 0.5 games ahead of the Phoenix Suns and the Memphis Grizzlies, who have a record of 33-39. The Grizz would beat the Suns in a tie due to head-to-head records. The Spurs have played two lesser games and as a result, are 11th with a 32-38 record. NBA standings are decided on win percentage, so the Spurs, Suns, and Grizzlies are all tied together.

Memphis could still make it in the play-in and not face Portland. For that, Memphis needs to win its game while Portland loses theirs. This means that the Suns would take the spot if they win with a Blazers loss. The Spurs would take it if they win when both the Suns and Blazers lose.

The most unlikely combination sees the 10th and 11th seeded teams (Phoenix and San Antonio) win their games while Memphis and Portland lose theirs.

Prediction

With the final fixtures and the unpredictability of the bubble, anything is possible. The Nets depleted roster has managed to go 5-2 heading into their game against Portland. They are a legitimate threat to unseat the Blazers. Similarly, Milwaukee and Dallas have strong teams that underperformed in the bubble. Their form could swing a result towards Memphis or Phoenix, even though their talent may be better.

Our prediction is that Portland holds the Brooklyn reserves off this game to seal their spot in the NBA Playoffs. Our bold claim is that the Spurs will be the unlikely member of the play-in. They hold the misfiring Utah Jazz off while Dallas and Milwaukee put in a strong showing against Phoenix and Memphis. Phoenix has already beaten the Mavericks, so it will be risky betting against the undefeated team with a lot to play for versus the Mavericks whose playoff seed is locked.