Taylor Townsend is currently navigating the path of a lucky loser at the Canadian Open. She received a slot in the main draw because of Yulia Putintseva‘s unexpected exit from the scenes. However, the American is apparently making the most out of this opportunity. She swiftly took down her round of 32 rival Marina Stakusic and is now matched up against Jelena Ostapenko.

The Latvian walks in with a notable record on hard courts and remarkable wins in the ongoing season. Although it has been a long time since they played against each other, it is time that they get to refresh their memories. But who among the two has better odds of winning? Let’s find out!

Taylor Townsend vs Jelena Ostapenko: Preview

Taylor Townsend (ranked No. 71) made it to the third round of her latest tournament after taking down Marina Stakusic, Emina Bektas 6-2, 6-2, and Dayana Yastremska 6-3, 3-1 (retired). The American has a 13-15 overall win-loss record in the ongoing season with a strong 12-8 on hard courts. Over the past decade, she has won 62% of her matches (220-135), including a solid 128-84 record on hard surfaces. Townsend appeared to be in dominant form in her last match where she defeated Marina Stakusic 6-0, 6-2.

Jelena Ostapenko seems to have found her groove in 2024, considering her victories at the Linz Open and the Adelaide International. Along with that, she also sits on a solid 28-13 record this season, making it clear that she has managed to stay on the dominant side. Despite a surprising first-round loss to Camila Osorio at the Paris Olympics, she is now aiming to make her mark at the Canadian Open. Ranked World No. 11 and seeded fourth in Canada, she got a bye in the first round and eventually took down Paula Badosa 3-6, 7-6, 6-2 in the round of 32.

Townsend vs Ostapenko: Head-to-head

Taylor Towsend and Jelena Ostapenko have played against each other one in their careers. Their last and only showdown was in the 2018 US Open. Battling for a position in the top 32, Ostapenko took her rival down in an intense three-set battle that ended up 4-6, 6-3, 6-4.

Prediction: Ostapenko to win in three sets

Jelena Ostapenko is set to face Taylor Townsend in Canada, and she appears to be ready for the challenge. The Latvian stands on a massive record in the ongoing season on hard courts with a perfect 4-0 win-loss record. Her aggressive playing style gives her an upper hand on the surface. She loves to attack from the baseline, hitting both her forehand and backhand with immense power. This approach could be a clear advantage against Townsend.

Ostapenko’s mentality of “see ball, hit winner“ keeps her on the offensive, making her merciless about hitting aggressive shots. She idolizes Serena Williams, drawing inspiration from her to dominate on hard courts. “For me, a good example is Serena,” she said in an interview.

Both players have shown a troubling serve in their last two matches. Townsend won 95% of points on first serve, but only landed 58% of first serves, coupled with 6 double faults. Ostapenko has a similar issue, as she only landed 55% of first serves and won 67% of those points, coupled with 12 double faults. With a troublesome serve from both ends, both need to rely on their returns in order to be the victor. 

Townsend, will insert notable efforts as the opportunity she received in this tournament is out of sheer luck. But Ostapenko’s aggressive style, combined with her current form, should give her a better edge, making her a better pick to win in three sets.