WTA Toronto: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens; Preview, Head-to-Head, and Prediction

“As soon as my foot touched the hard court, I felt like Sailor Moon, just transforming“- Naomi Osaka. The Japanese tennis star looks quite excited to start her North American hard-court swing. Osaka returned to the Tour this year after a long break from competitive tennis. However, ever since her return, she has struggled to hold on to her winning momentum. Can the two-time US Open champion find her rhythm back before she moves to New York?

Well, for starters, she started her campaign pretty well in Toronto. Osaka outclassed the Tunisian tennis star, Ons Jabeur by 6-3,6-1 in her first match. Next up for her is Belgium’s Elise Mertens. Even the Belgian has struggled a bit this season with her consistency. So, getting a firm hold of this match right from the start is going to be extremely crucial.

Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens: Preview

So far, the 26-year-old Japanese tennis ace has managed to reach two QFs this season. However, in her last match, she looked quite impressive. Osaka hit 2 aces and committed 4 double faults against Jabeur. She won 77% of her first serve and 67% of her second serve but could only manage to convert 4/6 of her breakpoints.

Mertens is also entering this match after her comprehensive victory against another American in the first round (R64). She defeated Katie Volynets by 6-3,6-1 in that match. Mertens hit 6 aces and committed 5 double faults against Volynets. She won 87% of her first serve and 50% of her second serve. However, in the breakpoints, she could only manage to convert 5/13.

Now, if look at her record in this season her best result has been reaching the finals in Hobart, and making it through to two QFs in her previous tournaments. Have these two tennis stars met each other before though?

Osaka vs Mertens: Head-to-Head

Well, the answer is a big yes! They have met each other six times in their careers so far. Currently, Osaka leads the H2H scoreline by a 4-2 margin over Mertens. 

• 2017 Wuhan Open R64: Mertens 6-4,1-6,6-4.
• 2019 Japan Women’s Open SF: Osaka 6-4,6-1.
• 2020 Cincinnati Masters SF: Osaka 6-2,7-6(5).
• 2021 Miami Open R16: Osaka 6-3,6-3.
• 2024 Indian Wells Masters R32: Mertens 7-5,6-4.
• 2024 ‘s-Hertogenbosch R32: Osaka 6-2,6-4.

So, we can clearly see Osaka and Mertens have already met each other twice this season. Their record in this season is currently 1-1, who will take the next step forward?

Prediction: Osaka to win in straight sets

Both of these players are not in their best form this season. However, they are two of the finest players on the hard court. Mertens’ favorite surface is grass but her major successes have come on hard courts. She reached the SF of the 2018 AO and QF of the US Open twice in her career. For Osaka, well this Japanese tennis star has won four Grand Slam titles in her career and all four of them have come on hard courts. This shows us the magnitude of this rivalry between these two experienced campaigners.

Mertens is currently ranked 35th in the world. She is more of a baseline player who tries to mix up her excellent defensive skills with her aggressive shot-taking abilities. She has the capability of hitting flat groundstrokes with a little top spin and this often causes some real trouble to her opponents. She can hit a significant amount of winners, but it’s often accompanied by a high number of unforced errors. Her biggest weapon is the return of serves, she is absolutely impeccable in that! Moreover, her incredible ability to swiftly turn defense to offense is what makes her a tricky one to handle for her opponents.

However, with the enormous experience of playing at the bigger stages of the game, Osaka now perhaps has the medicine to handle any tricks on the hard courts. Her aggressive baseline game along with excellent raw power and incredible serving abilities is what makes her a lethal opponent. Osaka’s strong forehand is one of the best on the tour, and she also has the ability to snatch points from long rallies. Will the match go deep though?

Well, Osaka has a win-loss record of 17-14 this season, and for Mertens, it’s currently 20-18. Although these stats indicate this match has a higher chance to go deep, Osaka’s dominance on hard courts can never be ruled out!