Big match coming up in Palermo! Defending champion Qinwen Zheng takes on Czech Republic’s Karolina Muchova in the finals of the Palermo Ladies Open. We all are well aware of the threat of Muchova on the dirt, but Zheng has been in red-hot form this year. Who will have the last laugh in this thrilling encounter?

Qinwen Zheng has already reached the finals of the Australian Open this year. Apart from that, she has already made it to the QF twice in her previous tournament this season. On the other hand, Muchova hasn’t played much this season but in her three tournaments this season, she has now reached one QF and final. Now, it’s time for them to step up on the bigger occasion and turn the longer runs into winning runs.

Qinwen Zheng vs Karolina Muchova: Preview

Zheng will enter this match after winning her previous four matches in this tournament. Interestingly, she hasn’t dropped a set in Palermo. In her previous match, she defeated France’s Diane Parry by 7-5, 6-4. Qinwen Zheng hit 3 aces, committing just 2 double faults. She won 85% of her first-serve and 67% of her second serve. Apart from that, the Chinese tennis star also recorded 3/5 in the breakpoints, saving 3 out of 4.

So far this year, Qinwen Zheng has hit 177 aces and committed 124 double faults. She has won 74.7% of her service games and 33.6% of her return games.

Karolina Muchova on the other hand, has shown a fair bit of resilience in her previous matches in Palermo. She eased past her Romanian opponent, Irina-Camelia Begu in the SF by 6-1, 6-1. Muchova hit just 4 aces in that match and committed just a single double fault. She won 77% of her first serve, and 60% of her second serve. On the breakpoints, she recorded, 5/6, and did not lose even one. How are her overall numbers this season?

Muchova has hit 12 aces and has committed 7 double faults in the 2024 tournament. The 27-year-old Czech tennis star has won 83.3% of her service games, and 25% of her return games.

Zheng vs Muchova: Head-to-Head

So far, they have met each other only once in their careers. It was in the R64 at the 2022 Madrid Open, where Muchova defeated Qinwen Zheng by 1-6, 6-3, 6-4. Looking at their epic clash, Muchova scored 5 aces committing just 2 double faults in the match, whereas Zheng managed to hit only 1 ace. The Chinese player hit 4 double faults, and won 63% of her first serve and 58% of her second serve, while for the Czech it was 68% and 45% respectively. Zheng converted 3 out of her 13 breakpoints, but Muchova managed to convert 3 out of her 5 breakpoint chances.

Prediction: Zheng to win this match in three sets

It’s the world’s number 7 versus the number 35, the 2024 AO finalist versus the 2023 French Open finalist! So this gives us a hint about the magnitude of this heavy-weight clash. Although Muchova has been a real threat on this surface, Zheng’s incredible form this season will keep her slightly ahead in this matchup. The Chinese tennis star has recorded a win-loss record of 23-12 this season compared to just 6-2 by the Czech.

Apart from that, Muchova has lost three out of the four tour finals she has played in her career. Qinwen Zheng, on the other hand, has won her last nine matches here in Palermo. She’ll now be keen to clinch another title at this venue. It’ll be Zheng’s aggressive baseline game versus the exceptional variety of Muchova. Zheng loves to hit the ball early and control the match from the baseline. She has a powerful serve and an equally venomous forehand.

Muchova comes up with an intelligent game backed up by powerful groundstrokes from both wings using both her forehand and backhand. She can hit winners from any position and can disguise her opponent with incredible drop shots. Her excellent drop shots could be really effective against Qinwen Zheng since the Chinese often tend to take her heavy topspin forehand from deep behind the baseline. However, the clay court in Palermo is comparatively a bit faster than other clay courts, this may well suit Zheng’s playing style.

So, looking at these stats and their current form I’d keep the Chinese ahead of the Czech in Palermo.