WTA Eastbourne: Madison Keys vs Leylah Fernandez; Preview, Head-to-Head, and Prediction

After Leylah Fernandez handed a devastating defeat to Britain’s Harriet Dart in the QF of the Eastbourne International, she steps into her first SF on the grass. She will now take on the two-time champion of Eastbourne, Madison Keys, in the SF. This will be the Canadian’s first SF appearance at the WTA 500 level as well. She has been in good touch in this tournament this year. Can she make it to the finals, defeating the American tennis star?

Keys has vast experience of playing on this surface, as she has reached the QF of Wimbledon twice in her career. Now, she’s eyeing a title run in Eastbourne before stepping onto the courts of the All-England Club. Keys entered into the semis without having to play the QF! Karolina Muchova, who returned to action following an almost 10-month hiatus, gave her a walkover. Therefore, she has a slight advantage with more recovery time.

Madison Keys vs Leylah Fernandez: Preview

Although Madison Keys didn’t have to play the QF, she played really well in the R16 match against Ukraine’s Anhelina Kalinina. She defeated the Ukrainian by 7-6(5), 6-1, and she hammered 9 aces, committing just 4 double faults. Her first serve win percentage was 72%, while on the second serve, it was 62%. Keys converted just 3/5 breakpoints against Kalinina while giving her 1/11, showing a strong mental game when facing a break.

She has hit 69 aces so far this season and has committed 50 double faults. Madison Keys is known for her fast serving abilities, and she won 72.4% of her service games this year. In return games, she managed to win just 38.8%. How are her numbers compared to her Canadian opponent?

Fernandez is entering this match after her comfortable 6-2, 6-1 victory over Dart in the QF. Despite the dominating victory, Fernandez hit just 2 aces and committed an equal number of double faults. She won 81% of her first serve and 62% of her second serve. However, on the breakpoints, she was 5/7 against Harriet Dart while letting her break once.

Looking at her numbers from this season, Leylah Fernandez has hit a total of 44 aces and committed more than double the amount of double faults, 105. She has won 69.3% of her service games and 33.5% of her return games.

Keys vs Fernandez: Head-to-Head

Both of these players have met each other only once in their careers so far. It was in the second round of the 2021 French Open, where Madison Keys defeated Leylah Fernandez by 6-1, 7-5. Keys hit 6 aces and committed 2 double faults against the Canadian, but Fernandez failed to hit even a single ace in the entire match. However, she erroneously hit 6 double faults!

Madison Keys won 71% of her first and 54% of her second serve, while it was just 49% and 58%, respectively, for Leylah Fernandez. The Canadian tennis was 2/8 in the breakpoints compared to Madison Keys’ 5/14. Who will have the last laugh this time around in Eastbourne?

Prediction: Keys to win in three sets

Looking at their current form and their previous records against each other, Madison Keys looks to be the favorite in their upcoming contest. She has a win-loss record of 16-6 this season, whereas Leylah Fernandez’s record has been 13-13. The American is a real threat on this surface, and she has proved her mettle time and again in the past.

Keys is an aggressive baseliner who’s known for her fiery serve and powerful groundstrokes, always a boon on grass. She has a good forehand, but she doesn’t like to come to the net too often. Keys needs to keep a check on her unforced errors and try to seal the deal as soon as possible against this mighty challenger. On the contrary, Fernandez is known for her athleticism and incredible defensive abilities. Her never-say-die attitude often gives her an edge even in the toughest battles.

However, she has struggled with her first serve in the last few years, which continue in 2024. So, looking at all these, we can say that Madison Keys will most likely go through to the finals for the second time in Eastbourne.