The time of the year that the fans have been eagerly anticipating is here. After a long season revolving around clay and grass, players from all around the world have gathered around in the US for the last grand slam event of the season. While top-ranked players still have enough time to prepare, the moment is crucial for lower-ranked individuals aiming to enter the main draw. In her opening match, United Kingdom’s Heather Watson is set to face the United States’ Clervie Ngounoue. With a huge difference in their rankings, the clash is set to be one of a kind. But who is more likely to win? Here are the odds!

Heather Watson vs Clervie Ngounoue: Preview

Currently ranked at No. 201, Heather Watson will start her U.S. Open campaign after a tough loss to Lucrezia Stefanini. This showdown took place in the second round of the W100 Cary tournament on August 14, where she fell 6-4, 1-6, 7-6(3). Her best result this year came at the W50 Nottingham, where she won the title by defeating Manon Leonard 6-3, 6-0 in the final. Her previous best U.S. Open result was reaching the first round multiple times between 2011 and 2021.

Clervie Ngounoue, on the other side, will enter the grand slam event after her last match in Washington, where she lost to Peyton Stearns 6-3, 7-6(3) in the first round on July 30. Her best achievements this season include winning titles at the W35 Naples, where she defeated Allie Kiick 6-1, 6-1, and the W50 Dallas, where she overcame Robin Anderson 2-6, 6-3, 7-5. Her previous best U.S. Open result was reaching the first round in 2023.

Watson vs Ngounoue: Head-to-head

The head-to-head table between Heather Watson and Clervie Ngounoue remains vacant. Neither of them has ever crossed paths with each other, considering a notable gap in their current rankings. The upcoming showdown at the US Open qualifier would not only mark their first-ever meeting but will also decide their entry in the main draw of the major event.

Prediction: Watson to win in straight sets

Heather Watson looks strong to win against Clervie Ngounoue in straight sets at the US Open qualifying match. Watson’s recent form shows she has won 45.6% of points on her second serve, which is quite close to Ngounoue’s 46.19%. However, Watson’s return game gives her the edge. She has won 58.72% of her opponent’s second-serve points, compared to Ngounoue’s 56.71%, and 38.65% of first-serve return points, while Ngounoue has won 35.77%.

Watson has saved 53.7% of breakpoints under pressure situations, a number that is slightly lower than Ngounoue’s 62.99%. But Watson’s overall experience and performance make her the favorite. She has won 53.33% of her matches in the past year including a massive 67.86% win rate in Challenger/ITF tournaments, matching Ngounoue’s performance at the same level.

Watson holds a solid 224-185 career record on hard courts, while Ngounoue has only a 27-21. This makes it clear that the Briton is multiple times more experienced than her upcoming match rival. Watson also has a notable upper hand in indoor hard court performance as she boasts a 62% win rate over her career, while Ngounoue’s best surface is indoor hard, where she has played fewer matches.

Watson’s superior return game, experience, and consistent performance at higher levels of competition suggest she will advance to the tournament, winning the match in straight sets.