“She’s a great clay-court player, but I won (Roland Garros), so I can say the same thing for myself,” a confident Jelena Ostapenko reacted after crushing her favorite rival and former World No.1 Iga Swiatek – once again – in R8 of the Stuttgart Open. In their sixth WTA meeting, on Saturday, the Latvian star maintained her clean record against the Pole. She’s now up 6-0 in H2H battles against Swiatek. But Ostapenko’s campaign in Stuttgart is still far from over. On Sunday, she will face a formidable opponent in Russia’s Ekaterina Alexandrova. Who’s likely to come out on top in the summit clash? Let’s try to find out!

Jelena Ostapenko v Ekaterina Alexandrova: Preview

World No.24 Jelena Ostapenko’s 2025 season has been average to say the least. Back in January, she started the year with an early R32 exit in Brisbane. In her next event, at the Adelaide International, her fate remained unchanged as she was ousted in the R16 again. Her poor run of form continued further as the Latvian pro crashed out in the first round of the Australian Open as well before suffering another early exit in Dubai (R32). In Doha, however, Ostapenko showed immense improvement. So much so that she managed to reach the summit clash before losing to America’s Amanda Anisimova.

But her poor form resurfaced once again. In the next four events (Dubai, Indian Wells, Miami, and Charleston), she couldn’t move beyond R64, R64, R64, and R16, respectively. In Stuttgart, however, it seems Ostapenko has found her lost rhythm. The 27-year-old began her campaign with an easy win (6-3, 3-0) in R32 after her opponent Dayana Yastremska retired due to injury.

Ostapenko then eliminated a tough player in America’s Emma Navarro, in R16, with a score line of 7-5, 3-6, 6-2. On Friday, the World No.24 overcame her favorite rival, Iga Swiatek, in the QF as well. She beat the five-time slam champion for the sixth time in six matches to enter the Stuttgart Open semifinal.

Speaking of her opponent, Ekaterina Alexandrova’s season has been decent, if not impressive. Her journey didn’t begin on a positive note as she was ousted in R32 at the Brisbane International. Then in Adelaide and Melbourne, she couldn’t move past the R16 and the first round, respectively. But Alexandrova made a stunning comeback in her next campaign. At the Linz Open, she won the title, beating Ukraine’s Dayana Yastremska in the final with a score line of 6-2, 3-6, 7-5.

In Doha, as well, she made a stable run and reached the SF before losing out to eventual winner Amanda Anisimova. Her next three events, however, were forgettable to say the least. At the Dubai Tennis Championships, Indian Wells Masters, and Miami Open, Alexandrova was ousted in the R64 successively. The Russian pro then returned to form at the Charleston Open earlier this month, making it to the SF round before her loss against eventual winner Jessica Pegula.

And now in Stuttgart, she’s been delivering stellar performances. Alexandrova began her campaign with a straight-set win over Liudmila Samsonova. But her biggest victory came in the R16 when she pulled off an upset. The World No.22 eliminated the teenage sensation Mirra Andreeva with a score line of 6-3, 6-2. On Saturday, she then stunned another top 10 player, ousting Jessica Pegula in the QF with a brutal score line of 6-0, 6-4 to enter the Stuttgart Open SF stage.

Ostapenko v Alexandrova: Head-to-Head

Both players have faced each other ten times across WTA events in their careers. Interestingly, the h2h tally is tied at 5-5 so far. When they met last time, in the final of the 2024 Linz Open, Ostapenko emerged victorious.

• 2024 Linz Open Final: Ostapenko 6-2, 6-3
• 2024 Adelaide International SF: Ostapenko 6-2, 7-6(3)
• 2023 San Diego R32: Ostapenko 7-6(3), 6-7, 7-5
• 2022 Seoul Final: Alexandrova 7-6(4), 6-0
• 2022 Madrid Open R64: Alexandrova 6-2, 4-6, 6-4
• 2019 Linz Open SF: Ostapenko 1-6, 7-6(5), 7-5
• 2019 Eastbourne R16: Alexandrova 6-3, 2-1 (Ostapenko retired)
• 2018 Seoul R16: Alexandrova 6-3, 6-2
• 2015 Olomouc R32: Alexandrova 7-5, 3-2 (Ostapenko retired)
• 2015 Kreuzlingen QF: Ostapenko 6-3, 6-3

Prediction: Ekaterina Alexandrova to win in three sets

Ekaterina Alexandrova has an edge over Jelena Ostapenko in terms of win-loss record this season. She’s won 15 of her 23 encounters so far (65.21 win percentage) compared to the Latvian player (10-9). Speaking of the history of these two players in this particular tournament, Alexandrova’s best run in Stuttgart came in 2021 when she reached the QF. In her last three appearances in Stuttgart, however, she couldn’t go past R16, R32, and R32.

But what about Ostapenko? Well, her best campaign at this WTA 500 event came in 2018 when she reached the QF. Her last three appearances (2021, 2023, and 2024) have been forgettable at best. She was ousted in R16, R16, and then R32, respectively.

Coming to their playing styles, Alexandrova’s got an aggressive approach. She likes to mix up her solid serves with impactful groundstrokes to build pressure on her opponents. On the other hand, Ostapenko likes to hit hard, flat strokes. Similar to the Russian pro, she also prefers to play with an aggressive intent, combined with powerful groundstrokes. And not to forget her strategic move to finish crucial points by approaching the net at times.

While they look identical, in terms of style, Alexandrova has been more consistent with her form this season. Ostapenko is likely to pose a tough challenge on Sunday, but Ekaterina Alexandrova is expected to win the Stuttgart Open semifinal in three sets.