“Finally I was able to play my best tennis in the final, and I’m just super happy with the result and with the performance, I’d say, these months.” World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka couldn’t resist her feelings of joy after winning the Miami Open title, besting familiar rival Jessica Pegula. Following the AO final heartbreak, in January, this victory worked like magic for Sabalenka, as it gave her the momentum. In her next event, in Stuttgart, she’s now reached the SF and is not too far away from winning a second straight WTA event in 2025. In order to do that, however, she will have to go through Italy’s Jasmine Paolini in the semifinal encounter on Sunday.

Aryna Sabalenka v Jasmine Paolini: Preview

Aryna Sabalenka had a dream start to her 2025 season, as she entered her third straight Australian Open final. She was on the brink of pulling off a three-peat at the Rod Laver Arena, having won the title in 2023 and 2024, respectively. But in the summit clash, America’s Madison Keys shattered her hopes. And subsequently, the Belarusian lost her form.

At the Qatar Open and Dubai Tennis Championships, she faced early exits (R32 and R16). But Sabalenka finally regained her form at the Indian Wells Masters last month. She managed to reach the final before losing out to 17-year-0ld teen sensation Mirra Andreeva. Then she emerged as the champion in the next WTA campaign in Miami, defeating Jessica Pegula in the final with a score line of 7-5, 6-2.

This week, she’s continued her fine form at the Stuttgart Open. Sabalenka began her journey in this tournament with a bye, and then her next opponent withdrew from the R16. So, the World No. 1 played her first match straight in the QF, where she ousted Belgian Elise Mertens with a score line of 6-4, 6-1 to enter the semifinal stage.

Speaking of her opponent, Jasmine Paolini, well, her 2025 season has been decent. Back in January, she made it to the third round of the Australian Open before losing to Elina Svitolina. In the next three events, however, she faced early exits. At the Qatar Open, Dubai Tennis Championships, and Indian Wells Masters, she was eliminated in the R16 successively. However, she bounced back at the Miami Open, where she reached the SF before losing to Sabalenka. The Italian has played consistent tennis in Stuttgart as well this week.

Paolini began her campaign in Stuttgart with a straight-set win over German star Eva Lys in R32. She then ousted another German player, Jule Niemeier, in the R16. On Saturday, the Italian overcame World No.4 Coco Gauff in the QF round, as she ousted the 2023 US Open winner in straight sets (6-4, 6-3) to reach the semifinal.

Sabalenka v Paolini: Head-to-Head

Aryna Sabalenka and Jasmine Paolini have faced each other six times on the WTA Tour so far. So far, Sabalenka leads the H2H tally 4-2 against the Italian pro. Their most recent meeting came this season itself. Last month, the three-time slam champion played against Paolini in the semifinal of the Miami Open, where she emerged victorious.

• 2025 Miami Open SF: Sabalenka 6-2, 6-2
• 2024 WTA Finals R1: Sabalenka 6-3, 7-5
• 2023 China Open R16: Sabalenka 6-4, 7-6(4)
• 2022 Indian Wells Masters R64: Paolini 2-6, 6-3, 6-3
• 2020 Linz Open R32: Sabalenka 6-4, 6-4
• 2017 Ilkley R32: Paolini 4-6, 7-5, 7-6(2)

Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka to win in straight sets

Aryna Sabalenka has a stellar win-loss record of 24-4 this season, translating to an impressive 85.71 win percentage. It gives her a crucial edge over Jasmine Paolini, who’s won 13 of her 18 matches. Speaking of the history of these two players in Stuttgart, Sabalenka has had a very good run in this tournament in the past. On three straight occasions (2021, 2022, and 2023), she reached the summit clash. Unfortunately, she lost all three finals. In the first one, Ashleigh Barty defeated her, and then five-time slam winner Iga Swiatek beat her in two successive seasons. Last year, too, Sabalenka made a stable run, reaching the QF before losing to Czechia’s Marketa Vondrousova.

Jasmine Paolini, on the other hand, played the Stuttgart Open only once before this year’s edition. Last season, she made it to the QF before losing to Elena Rybakina.

Coming to their playing styles, Sabalenka is known for her aggressive approach and powerful serves. Not to mention her solid groundstrokes, especially the forehand that she utilizes to dictate rallies. Paolini, on the other side, is quite an aggressive player as well. Similar to the Belarusian, she also prefers to hit powerful groundstrokes and effective forehands. Despite having a short stature, she can outperform her opponents with her speed and smooth movement between the baseline and the net.

Considering the recent form of the two players, Sabalenka seems to be going into this contest with a slight edge. The prediction is for the Belarusian to win this match in straight sets and advance to the final.