“It feels great, of course, I’m really happy…It’s amazing for Italy,” exclaimed Paolini in her recent post-match press conference. The 29-year-old has etched her name in Italian tennis history by becoming the first woman from her nation to reach the semifinals of the Miami Open. Her next challenge is a formidable one, as she’s set to face the tournament’s top seed, Aryna Sabalenka.

While Sabalenka is also celebrating her first Miami Open semifinal appearance, this marks her impressive 12th time reaching the semifinals of a WTA 1000 event. The Belarusian powerhouse has been dominant throughout the tournament, having not dropped a single set. The burning question now is whether Sabalenka can maintain her unblemished record, or if Paolini is poised to deliver a significant upset in this highly anticipated semifinal showdown.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini: Preview

Aryna Sabalenka had a wonderful start to her season this year. She clinched the title at the Brisbane International. However, after that, she was just one step short of her title triumphs at the AO and the Indian Wells. 

Here in Miami, she defeated the defending champion, Danielle Collins, by two sets in the R16, and then after that in the QF, she outclassed the number 9, Qinwen Zheng, by 6-2,7-5 in a rematch of the 2024 AO final. It took her just 1 hour and 36 minutes to seal the deal in her previous match. 

Jasmine Paolini defeated the four-time Grand Slam champion, Naomi Osaka, in the R16 in a hard-fought three-setter. After that, she didn’t have much trouble securing the victory in the QF against the Polish star Magda Linette. She defeated Linette by 6-3,6-2. Paolini had not reached any QF this season, but here in Miami, she has been quite impressive so far. The Italian has dropped only one set so far in the tournament. 

Sabalenka vs Paolini: Head-to-Head

Aryna Sabalenka has met Jasmine Paolini five times in her career so far. At the moment, she leads the H2H record against the Italian by 3-2. 

• 2024 WTA Finals Round 1: Sabalenka 6-3,7-5.
• 2023 Beijing R16: Sabalenka 6-4,7-6(4).
• 2022 Indian Wells R64: Paolini 2-6,6-3,6-3.
• 2020 Linz R32: Sabalenka 6-4,6-4.
• 2017 Ilkley R32: Paolini 4-6,7-5,7-6(2).

Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka will win this match in three sets

Although I have predicted a win for the Belarusian, I feel Jasmine Paolini will break her straight-sets winning streak in this tournament. The Italian has played some outstanding tennis in this tournament, and if we take a look at her numbers this season, Paolini (7) has a win-loss record of 12-5. However, Aryna Sabalenka (1) has a staggering record of 21-4 in 2025. Sabalenka has won four Grand Slam titles in her career so far, and guess what? All four of them have come on the hard courts! This shows us how lethal she can be on this surface.

If we take a look at their playing styles, Paolini is known for her dynamic and aggressive style of play, characterized by solid groundstrokes, particularly her strong forehand. Her ability to outmaneuver opponents with her incredible speed and agility, despite her shorter stature, is also something that makes her a really special player on the women’s Tour.

Aryna Sabalenka is known for her aggressive, power-based tennis style featuring a strong serve and powerful groundstrokes, particularly her forehand, which she uses to dictate rallies and force opponents onto the back foot. Her game is mainly based on taking control of points and hitting winners.

So, looking at all these aspects of her game, I don’t think Paolini can topple the world number one in this epic Top-10 clash. However, I feel she will put up a strong fight and force Sabalenka to head into a three-setter.