Katie Boulter started the season with confidence, declaring, “I’m going to have my moment, I’m sure of it.” But a foot injury threw a wrench into her plans, forcing her to sit out for more than a month. Now, the British No. 1 is back in action, hoping to regain her rhythm. Her return at Indian Wells was a bit shaky, but she has another shot at turning things around at the Miami Open. Up first? A showdown with rising American star Peyton Stearns on Tuesday, March 18. As the match approaches, let’s break down their chances.

Boulter vs. Stearns: Preview

Katie Boulter, who was seeded 22nd at the Australian Open, started strong by defeating Rebecca Marino but fell in the second round to Veronika Kudermetova. Then came her injury, keeping her off the court in February and forcing her to skip major WTA 1000 events in Qatar and Dubai. She made her comeback at Indian Wells earlier this month. After receiving a first-round bye, she defeated Irina-Camelia Begu before running into seventh seed Elena Rybakina, who ended her run in the third round.

Meanwhile, Stearns has had an up-and-down season. Early exits have been a theme, but she did make a splash at the Dubai Tennis Championships. There, she stunned Ons Jabeur in the first round and followed it up with a gutsy three-set win over world No. 8 Zheng Qinwen. Her run ended in the third round at the hands of eventual champion Mirra Andreeva. However, the momentum didn’t last—she crashed out in the first round of Indian Wells against Magda Linette. Now, Stearns is looking to get back on track in Miami.

Boulter vs. Stearns: Head-to-Head

Stearns holds a 2-0 lead over Boulter in their head-to-head matchups. Both encounters took place on hard courts. Their first meeting came at the ATX Open in Austin in February 2023, where Stearns won a grueling three-set battle, 7-6(5), 6-7(2), 7-6(5). They faced off again at the U.S. Open later that year, with Stearns claiming a more straightforward 6-4, 6-3 victory.

Prediction: Peyton Stearns to win in three tight sets

This Miami Open clash promises to be an intense battle. Peyton Stearns reached the second round here in 2024, while Katie Boulter made it all the way to the fourth round last year. The Brit will be banking on that past success, but Stearns’ playing style gives her an edge on this surface.

The American tennis player thrives in long rallies, using her powerful forehand to dictate points from the baseline. She has pushed top players to the brink, proving that she can hang with the best. Her ability to grind out wins in marathon matches is one of her biggest strengths. On the other hand, Boulter is more comfortable attacking the net and mixing in slices—an approach that works well on grass but can be less effective against a relentless baseliner like Stearns.

Serving will be key for both players. They each possess strong serves, but whoever lands more first serves will likely control the match. If Boulter can keep points short and aggressive, she has a chance to flip the script. However, her recent injury could still be a factor. It might affect her ability to go full throttle in Miami.

Given Stearns’ previous dominance in their matchups and her comfort on hard courts, she enters as the slight favorite with a 60-40 edge. Expect a tight three-set contest!