With a clear goal to “bring my best tennis and get the trophy,” Aryna Sabalenka has shown renewed determination following a series of mixed results. The World No. 1, despite facing disappointments in Doha and Dubai after her Australian Open heartbreak, bounced back strongly to reach the Indian Wells final recently. Though she fell short against Mirra Andreeva there, the three-time Grand Slam champion has quickly positioned herself for another title shot. She is now set to compete against No. 4 seed Jessica Pegula in the Miami Open final this Saturday.

Aryna Sabalenka v Jessica Pegula: Preview

Aryna Sabalenka started this season on a high note in Brisbane. She beat Russian Polina Kudermetova in the final encounter, 4-6, 6-3, 6-2. In her next big tour, at the Australian Open, Sabalenka was on the verge of achieving a three-peat, having won the Slam back in 2023 and 2024. But Madison Keys broke her hopes in the final at the Rod Laver Arena. Later, the Belarusian struggled to find her rhythm in subsequent tournaments. Last month, at the Qatar Open and Dubai Tennis Championships, she was ousted in R32 and R16, respectively. Thankfully, she didn’t take long to get back to winning ways.

Earlier this month, she succeeded in entering her second final of the Indian Wells, after 2023, before losing to Andreeva. Sabalenka has carried her consistent form in Miami too. She began her campaign with a win over Bulgaria’s Viktoriya Tomova. After that, she went to beat the likes of Elena-Gabriela Ruse and last year’s champion Danielle Collins in R32 and R16, respectively. In the QF, she ousted China’s Qinwen Zheng before eliminating Italy’s Jasmine Paolini in the SF.

Now coming onto her Miami Open final opponent, Jessica Pegula’s season has been impressive too. She kickstarted her journey by reaching the final of the Adelaide International in January. However, she lost to compatriot Madison Keys. In the Australian Open, Pegula couldn’t go beyond the third round. But then she made it to the QF round of the Qatar Open last month. In Dubai, she again failed to impress before winning her first WTA trophy of 2025 in Austin.

In her last tournament in Indian Wells, Pegula couldn’t go past R16. However, she appears to have found the momentum in Miami. The World No.4 won her first match against compatriot Bernarda Pera. After that, she went on to beat Anna Kalinskaya and Marta Kostyuk in R32 and R16, respectively. Pegula then ousted 2021 US Open winner Emma Raducanu in the QF before eliminating 19-year-old talent Alexandra Eala in the semifinal on Thursday.

Sabalenka vs Pegula: Head-to-Head

Both players have met each other eight times already during their careers. Sabalenka currently leads the h2h tally by a huge margin of 6-2.

• 2024 US Open Final: Sabalenka 7-5, 7-5
• 2024 Cincinatti Masters Final: Sabalenka 6-3, 7-5
• 2023 WTA Finals Round 1: Pegula 6-3, 6-3
• 2022 WTA Finals Round 1: Sabalenka 6-3, 7-5
• 2022 Italian Open R16: Sabalenka 6-1, 6-4
• 2021 Madrid Open R16: Sabalenka 6-1, 6-2
• 2020 French Open R128: Sabalenka 6-3, 6-1
• 2020 Cincinnati Masters R16: Pegula 6-2, 2-6, 6-3

Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka to win in straight sets

Aryna Sabalenka is having a slight edge over Pegula when it comes to 2025 stats. She’s won 22 of her 26 matches this season, compared to the American who’s not far behind at 20-5. As far as the event history goes, Sabalenka’s current run in Miami is her best yet. In the last three appearances (2022, 2023, and 2024), she couldn’t go beyond R64, quarterfinal, and R32 respectively.

Speaking of Pegula, she’s had a good run in Miami so far, compared to Sabalenka. In her last three appearances (2022, 2023, and 2024), she managed to reach back-to-back SF rounds before exiting out of the QF last season. In the current edition, she’s accomplished her best campaign in Florida.

Sabalenka has been utterly dominant throughout her Miami Open campaign, conceding no more than five games in any set. In contrast, Pegula has faced tougher opposition, needing deciding sets against Anna Kalinskaya and Emma Raducanu.

While Pegula boasts consistent success in Miami, reaching at least the quarterfinals in the last four years, her two final encounters with Sabalenka last year saw her constantly under pressure despite being in top form. Beyond a windy WTA Finals match, her sole victory over Sabalenka was five years ago in Cincinnati.

Sabalenka’s aggressive game, fueled by a powerful serve and groundstrokes, particularly her forehand, allows her to dictate rallies and relentlessly pressure opponents. While Pegula is tactically astute with effective flat groundstrokes and excellent court coverage, she may lack the firepower to consistently counter a top-form Sabalenka.

Ultimately, Pegula will likely need an off day from the World No. 1 to have a chance.

Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka in three straight sets.