American tennis sensation Peyton Stearns takes on the 36-year-old German tennis star, Tatjana Maria in the first round of the Madrid Open in just a few hours from now. Maria is an experienced campaigner. She made her professional tour debut way back in 2001. while Stearns is comparatively a newcomer. But having said that, this 22-year-old young girl from Cincinnati has been quite impressive since turning a pro almost two years ago.

Can she topple the German at the Arantxa Sanchez Stadium on Tuesday and make a winning start to her campaign in Madrid? Stearns’ fearless tennis will be tested against the tactical genius of Tatjana Maria.

Peyton Stearns vs Tatjana Maria: Preview

Stearns previously used to play college tennis for the Texas Longhorns. In 2022, she became the first Texas player to become the NCAA champion in women’s tennis. She has now become a more mature player than she was a couple of years ago. However, she didn’t have a great start to her season in 2024. Peyton Stearns lost her first four matches the year.

She played her last match at the Open De Rouen against her compatriot Sloane Stephens. Stephens defeated her in the first round match by 1-6,6-1,6-3. Throughout the match, the youngster could only manage to hit a single ace against former world number three. Stearns committed four double faults and converted four out of her seven break points.

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Her numbers with the serves were pretty much ordinary. Stearns won only 49% of her first serve and 62% of her second serve against Stephens. She won just six of her service games against the former US Open champion. Can she improve her numbers against the German?

Moreover, if we look at Peyton Stearns’ numbers for the 2024 season it looks a bit concerning for the American. Stearns has hit 38 aces so far this season but has committed a total of 55 double faults. She has won 59.4% of her service games but on the other hand, it dropped down to 34.9% when it came to winning on her return games. As things look like the 22-year-old needs to improve a bit on her serves to ace the game against an experienced campaigner like Maria.

Tatjana Maria on the other hand has been on the tour for quite some time now. She has seen several rise and fall in the tennis world over the years, but talking about her own records- Maria has won just 3 titles in her singles career so far. Her age isn’t in her favor at the moment and getting a good start against the youngster will be the key to her success in her first match in Madrid this year.

Talking about start, comparatively Tatjana Maria had a better start to her season than the American. She recently reached the QF of the Copa Colsanitas tournament but failed to make an impact in Stuttgart. In the Stuttgart Open, she lost to Belgium’s Elise Mertens by 1-6,6-4,0-6. Maria failed to hit even a single ace throughout that match but committed a double fault against Mertens. She won 56% of her first serve and 28% of her second serve in that match and converted three out of her six breakpoints. Winning just four of her service games denotes that she is far away from having served as her lethal weapon.

But what was her weapon when she last met Stearns at the Copa Colsanitas in 2023? Maria has so far hit more aces than Stearns this season (62) and committed 69 double faults. Even her numbers with the first (62.2%) and second-serve (44.4%) win percentage are better than the American. However, both the tennis stars have a close margin if we look at the percentage of the service and return games they have won this season. This is what makes this contest more interesting. 

Stearns vs Maria: Head-to-Head

Both of them have met only once in their career. It was in the finals of the tournament in Bogota, that Maria defeated Stearns by a three-set thriller (6-3,2-6,6-4). What will be the scoreline this time around? Well, let’s jump into the numbers from that match, before taking any call on the first-round match in Madrid. In that match, Maria hit six aces compared to only one by Stearns. But the German star committed more double faults than the American. Both of them had the same number when it came to win percentage on the first serve (66%).

However, Tatjana Maria had a slight edge of 3% over Peyton Stears when it came to the win percentage on the second serve. Stearns converted three of her five breakpoints while Maria could only manage three out of nine chances. Does it sound like more even now? However, if we look at their experience and the current form of both players, you’ll definitely get the hint about who’s slightly ahead in this contest.

Prediction: Maria to win this match by a close margin

Tatjana Maria reached the second round of the tournament last year. While this will be the first appearance for Peyton Stearns in Madrid. Maria has a win-loss record of 10-12 season, on the other hand, the American has a win-loss record of 3-9 for the 2024 season. Maria would love to fancy her chances with her prolific single-handed backhand on the surfaces of the Arantxa Sanchez Stadium. Here, the surfaces are more of a sluggish nature and the ball moves a fraction slower as compared to other clay courts.

While Peyton Stearns would love to utilize the conditions in her favor and look forward to implementing her booming forehand as much as she can against the 36-year-old. Although Stearns is a more mature player and she reached the third round of the French Open in 2023, there is still room for improvement in her game. So, rank 67 looks slightly ahead against the number 87 in this intriguing faceoff on Tuesday.