Madrid Open 2024: Naomi Osaka vs Liudmila Samsonova; Preview, Head-to-Head, Prediction

Naomi Osaka picks up from where she left off two years ago! The Japanese tennis star recently clinched her first clay-court win since the 2022 Madrid Open. by defeating Belgium’s Greet Minnen in the first round of the same tournament. Osaka will now be looking forward to bagging as many wins as she can on the red dirt before stepping onto the court for the French Open, which will be held next month. While Liudmila Samsonova would love to remind her of the results from her previous match at the iconic courts of the Manolo Santana.

Can Naomi Osaka make a deeper run into the tournament this year? Osaka returned to competitive action this year after a long maternity leave. Since making her comeback on the women’s tour, she has failed to find some consistency in her game. This is something that Samsonova would love to capitalize on when she faces Osaka in her second-round match in Madrid. Taking the chances will be the key for the Russian against the four-time Grand Slam champion.

Naomi Osaka vs Liudmila Samsonova: Preview

Osaka didn’t have a great start to her season in 2024. But she made a strong comeback by reaching the QF of the Qatar Open in February this year. She defeated Minnen 6-4,6-1 in her previous match. It’ll be interesting to see if she can build the momentum from that match in her next game. Naomi Osaka is known for her powerful serves and she fired eight during her match against the Belgian. She committed only three double faults throughout the game and converted three out of her ten breakpoints in that match.

If we go a little deeper into the numbers from that match, Naomi Osaka won 74% of her first serves and it notched up to 75% when it came to her win percentage on second serves. She managed to win nine of her service games against Greet Minnen. How many can she win against Samsonova? Naomi Osaka has hit a total of 112 aces this season and committed only 45 double faults. So, surely she’s going to bank on her serves a lot to break the lock in this enticing encounter.

Liudmila Samsonova on the other hand, also had a year full of ups and downs so far this season. Her best results in 2024 came at the Abu Dhabi Open where she reached the SF. After that, she couldn’t leave a significant impact on the rest of the tournaments. Samsonova is entering this high-voltage contest in Madrid after a first-round exit from the Stuttgart Open. In that match, her compatriot, Anastasia Potapova defeated her 6-4,4-6,6-3.

Samsonova gave a good fight in that match, she hit nine aces and committed only four double faults in the entire match. But the results didn’t go in her favor. She had a 72% win percentage on her first serve and 43% on the second serve, but that wasn’t enough to outclass Potapova. Liudmila Samsonova had converted five of her twelve double faults and won eight of her service games against her. The 25-year-old tennis star loves her forehands and that’s perhaps one of her biggest weapons. Can her forehands give her an upper hand over Osaka in her next match?

Osaka vs Samsonova: Head-to-Head

Naomi Osaka had met Liudmila Samsonova only once in her career. It was in March this year when these two tennis stars took on each other in the first round of the Indian Wells Masters. Osaka had the last laugh that time. She defeated her by 7-5,6-3. What will be the result this time around? Well, before jumping to any predictions for the Madrid clash. Let us take a look at the numbers from their previous match to get a better picture of what lies ahead of us.

Osaka hit four aces compared to Samsonova’s only two aces in the entire match. Samsonova committed more double faults than Osaka in that match. However, her first-serve win percentage was better than the Japanese by the slightest of margins. Naomi Osaka’s (77%) win percentage on the second serve was better than Liudmila Samsonova’s (63%) record in that match. The Russian converted only two of her seven break points. While the Japanese tennis star converted four out of her seven break points. Does it give a hint of who’s ahead in this contest?

Prediction: Osaka to win this match in three sets

Naomi Osaka grew up playing on the hard courts in the US and she has struggled a bit previously while playing on the clay courts. Her tactical acumen along with her persistent all-around game will be the key ahead in this intriguing contest. The aggressive baseliner will look forward to using more of her raw power, especially while hitting forehands and serves during the game on the sluggish courts. Naomi Osaka has a win-loss record of 8-7 this year, while Samsonova could only manage a 4-9 record this season so far.

Liudmila Samsonova is known for her accurate groundstrokes off both wings, the key for her will be to hold her nerves against the former number one. She needs to reduce her errors and grab all the chances that come her way in that match. But Osaka’s experience of playing on the bigger stages of the game and her numbers for this season will keep her slightly ahead of the Russian. Do not forget, Naomi Osaka reached the QF of the Madrid Open in 2019!