Madrid Open 2024: Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka; Preview, Head-to-Head, Prediction

After a week jam-packed with tennis action, we have finally arrived at the women’s singles final. Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka will fight for the crown in what will be a rematch from the 2023 Madrid Open final. Swiatek stumbled at the start of the year but caught herself as the WTA 1000 tournaments came around, and she has already won 2.

Sabalenka defended her Australian Open title at the start of the year but has fallen short of expectations since. However, her title defense in Madrid has been highly impressive, showing she is ready to be the player who belongs in the top 2.

Iga Swiatek vs Aryna Sabalenka: Preview

In Madrid, Swiatek has achieved 5 breadsticks and 2 bagels against her opponents. She has only dropped one set to the finals and beat Madison Keys 6-1, 6-3 in the semifinal. Swiatek hit 3 aces and 7 double faults in the tournament, with a 63% win on first serves. She has shown great control when receiving, winning 28 break points out of 53. The Polish player has only given away 6 breakpoints, with 3 going to Beatriz Haddad Maia in their 3-set clash and none to Keys. She only gave 14 serve points to Keys, which shows serve has favored her well in the semifinal.

Sabalenka reached the final after 4 matches that went to 3 sets. Several players threatened to oust her, but she stood firm. In the semifinal, she won against Elena Rybakina 1-6, 7-5, 7-6. Saba has hit 28 aces and 19 double faults in her Madrid stint. The Belarusian beauty managed a 77% win on the first serve but lost 99 points to Rybakina while winning 95. She gave away 4 break points out of 10 while winning 3 out of 8. Showing 4 comebacks, Sabalenka has shown a solid mindset under pressure.

Swiatek vs Sabalenka: Head-to-Head

Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka have played against each other 9 times on the WTA Tour. The Polish player leads the rivalry with 6 wins over Saba’s 3, but it did not start in such a way.

• 2021 WTA Finals round robin: Sabalenka 2-6, 6-2, 7-5
• 2022 Qatar Open quarter finals: Swiatek 6-2, 6-3
• 2022 Stuttgart Open final: Swiatek 6-2, 6-2
• 2022 Italian Open semifinal: Swiatek 6-2, 6-1
• 2022 US Open semifinal: Swiatek 3-6, 6-1, 6-4
• 2022 WTA Finals semifinal: Sabalenka 6-2, 2-6, 6-1
• 2023 Stuttgart Open final: Swiatek 6-3, 6-4
• 2023 Madrid Open final: Sabalenka 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 
• 2023 WTA Finals final: Swiatek 6-3, 6-2

Swiatek has more wins on clay over Sabalenka, but the Belarusian player also defeated her at a grand stage. The 2024 Madrid Open recreates the 2023 finals, which is bound to be an exciting fight for fans.

Prediction: Swiatek to win a close match

This will be Swiatek’s second final in Madrid and third for Sabalenka. The Belarusian comes as a two-time champion, while Swiatek has yet to win. World number 1 has a great chance of getting revenge for the 2023 loss. She has been simply dominating this tournament. Although statistics don’t put her apart from Saba, her control of the clashes has been simply outstanding. 

Her semifinal opponent, Keys, faced the deep shots Swiatek is known for and had to fight for each point she won. “You win a point or two, and you have to work so hard to do that or you have to play such a great point to win the point. It’s hard to consistently do that when every ball that’s coming back at you, it’s coming quick, it’s coming deep, it’s coming with good margin.”

Swiatek herself feels her game is solid and clean, which means there are not mental barriers which can cause her downfall against Saba. “It was a pretty clean performance and really solid game from myself,” Swiatek said after her match with Keys. Being a clay specialist is just a cherry on top for her.

Sabalenka has a good chance of defending her title and winning the Madrid Open for the third time as well. She has shown great comebacks, even against the world number 4 Rybakina, who had a 7-match win streak on clay. After the clash, Saba said, “I was struggling a lot on my serve in the first set, and definitely, easy games on my serve gave me a bit more belief that I still got some chances in this match.”

Attaining wins on her serve helped her fight back against Rybakina, and she can definitely create a similar situation against Swiatek. But if the Belarusian player wants to lift the trophy, she will have to ensure she wins the first few games in the set, as Swiatek rarely allows a comeback. When she has the lead, she has the win.

The final in Madrid will be an exciting clash as both have shown a different brand of tennis in the last week. Who will be the victor?