Madrid Open 2024: Elena Rybakina vs Aryna Sabalenka; Preview, Head-to-Head, Prediction

The second semifinal of the Madrid Open will feature two titans battling it out for the chance at the title. Elena Rybakina will face Aryna Sabalenka as the two continue a fantastic run. Rybakina has reached the semifinal of the Madrid Open for the first time, while Sabalenka comes on as a defending and two-time champion. Both have performed great this year and Sabalenka has won the Australian Open.

Rybakina has won three titles, including the Stuttgart Open, and reached the final of two, which tips the overall momentum to her side. But playing against Saba is another challenge altogether. 

Elena Rybakina vs Aryna Sabalenka: Preview

Rybakina steps into the semifinal with only one set dropped throughout the tournament. She faced Yulia Putintseva in the quarterfinal and almost lost after Putintseva had two match points. Rybakina lost the first set 4-6, 7-6, 7-5, hitting 6 aces and 8 double faults. She took 3 break points and was also broken three times. Her serve did not bode well as she allowed Putintseva to take 45 receiving points and even won 1 less point than her opponent. She won 70% of points on the first serve after landing 61%.

Sabalenka dropped one set thrice in the tournament, only winning in straight sets against Mirra Andreeva in the quarterfinal, 6-1, 6-4. She hit 2 aces and 1 double fault and won 79% of points on first serve. She took 3 break points and did not allow Andreeva to break her even once. Saba was diabolical when receiving the serve as she won 27 receiving points out of 65 total.  

Rybakina vs Sabalenka: Head-to-Head

Elena Rybakina and Aryna Sabalenka have played against each other eight times on the WTA Tour. Sabalenka leads the head-to-head with five victories over the years.

• 2019 Wuhan Open quarterfinal: Sabalenka 6-3, 1-6, 6-1
• 2021 Abu Dhabi Open quarterfinal: Sabalenka 6-4, 4-6, 6-3
• 2021 Wimbledon round of 16: Sabalenka 6-3, 4-6, 6-3
• 2023 Australian Open final: Sabalenka 4-6, 6-3, 6-4
• 2023 Indian Wells Masters final: Rybakina 7-6, 6-4
• 2023 Beijing Open quarterfinal: Rybakina 7-5, 6-2
• 2023 WTA Finals round 1: Sabalenka 6-2, 3-6, 6-3
• 2024 Brisbane International final: Rybakina 6-0, 6-3

The two have played eight matches over the years, with Rybakina winning the most recent clash. However, the two have never played on clay before, which means this will be a first for them.

Prediction: Rybakina to advance to the final after a close match

When it comes to a clash between players in the top 5, it can be rather difficult to make a choice. However, Elena Rybakina has been highly convincing on clay. In 2024, Rybakina is undefeated on clay and has an 8-match win streak. Her big serve and high-power groundstrokes have helped her in Madrid, which is slightly faster than other clay tournaments. She was pushed by Putintseva and almost lost the match, but kept composure to come back from 2-5, 15-40. 

Rybakina made several mistakes in the previous match but overcame them with utmost belief in herself. “In the third set it was very quick when I started to lose these three games in a row, 5-2 down. After that, I think I just didn’t have any more emotions, no frustration or nothing. I was just going for every point. Was trying to do what I supposed to do, and then whatever happens happened. I won the match, so…“

Aryna Sabalenka won the Australian Open at the start of the year but hasn’t managed to accumulate many wins following the tournament. She broke through in Madrid and has found herself in the semifinal. After struggling for the last few months, she won the match against Andreeva with a smile on her face. “I’m super happy with the level I played today, and with this win. She’s an incredible player even though she’s super young. Conditions suit me well, and hopefully, I can just keep going the way that I’m going.”

The Kazakhstani player has performed great, but it is nothing to take away from Sabalenka. Both have shown fantastic performances, which will continue in the semifinal. Rybakina, with more wins on clay, is set to take the victory, but Sabalenka has the ability to surprise us.