Italian Open 2024: Naomi Osaka vs Marta Kostyuk; Preview, Head-to-Head, Prediction

Naomi Osaka came walking into the Court Centrale at Foro Italico, playing Kendrick Lamar’s ‘Not Like Us’ on her headphones. She took a glimpse at her opponent and then conquered her 7-6(2),6-1 in just 84 minutes. Naomi Osaka defeated France’s Clara Burel in her first match at the 2024 Italian Open. She will now face the in-form Marta Kostyuk in her second-round match. Can Naomi Osaka carry forward her winning momentum in her next match?

Well, this was her first appearance at the tournament since 2021 and her win against the 45th-ranked Burel was her first win against a Top 50 opponent on clay. Naomi Osaka last achieved this feat in 2019 at the French Open where she defeated Victoria Azarenka in a three-set thriller. The Japanese tennis is still far from her best, but she’s hungry, she’s desperate and more importantly, she looks quite fit now. It will be interesting to see how far she goes this time in Rome.

Naomi Osaka vs Marta Kostyuk: Preview

Grand Stand Arena waits for an exciting battle between the former world number one and the current world number 20! Naomi Osaka’s best result this year came at the Qatar Open, where she reached the QF. She has been pretty ordinary in the rest of the tournaments this year. Despite a little hiccup in the first set of her last match, Osaka overcame the French challenge quite comfortably at the end. She fired in ten aces and kept a strong check on her double faults. Her first serve win percentage was 82% and her second serve win percentage was 54% against Clara Burel. 

Naomi Osaka converted four of her nine breakpoints and won eight of her service games in her first match at the Italian Open this year. Looking at her overall numbers for this season, Osaka has hit 127 aces and committed just 53 double faults so far. She has won 79.4% of her service games but could manage to seal the deal in only 24% of her return games. Can Naomi Osaka ace her aces and step a foot forward towards the next round by defeating the Ukrainian in her next match?

Talking about the Ukrainian, Marta Kostyuk is in red-hot form this year. She reached the QF of the 2024 AO earlier this year and then it was followed by two finals and one semifinal appearance in her next tournaments. However, at the Madrid Open, Marta Kostyuk saw an early exit after getting defeated by Egypt’s Mayar Sherif 2-6,5-7. In that match, Kostyuk managed to hit only two aces but committed four double faults. Her first serve win percentage was 50% but it dropped to 45% on her second serve. But the Ukrainian tennis star converted three out of her four breakpoints and won four of her service games against Sherif.

Looking at her stats for this season, Marta Kostyuk has hit a total of 73 aces this season but has committed 172 double faults. That’s something that should be a concerning factor in her game against Osaka. Kostyuk has won 65.5% of her service games and 40.8% of her return games this season. Can she defeat the experienced campaigner in her next match?

Osaka vs Kostyuk: Head-to-Head

They have met only once in their career so far. Naomi Osaka had the last laugh in their last meeting at the 2020 US Open. She defeated Marta Kostyuk by 6-3,6-7,6-2 at the Arthur Ashe Stadium. In that match, Osaka hit five aces and committed four double faults. The Ukrainian hit seven aces and committed a total of ten double faults against the Japanese tennis star. Osaka’s first serve win percentage was 79% but it dropped to 58% on her second serve against Kostyuk. 

Marta Kostyuk managed to win 67% of her first serve and 52% of her second serve in the third-round clash at the US Open that year. However, the numbers weren’t too impressive for both the players when it came to the breakpoints. Osaka could only convert five of her twenty-one breakpoints while Kostyuk converted just one out of her eight. Converting the half chances in their second meeting will be the key to deciding the ultimate winner of the second-round match in Italy.

Prediction: Kostyuk to sneak in a victory against the former world number one

Naomi Osaka hasn’t played much on the clay courts this year. But Marta Kostyuk reached the finals of the Stuttgart Open last month. The Ukrainian has been in great touch this year and has bagged a win-loss record of 19-8 so far this season. While Naomi Osaka has a win-loss record of just 9-8. However, Osaka has improved little by little every time she stepped on the court after her comeback. Finding consistency will be the key to success for Naomi Osaka. Marta Kostyuk will look forward to carrying the momentum of getting favorable results in the big matches.

Osaka reached the QF of this tournament in 2019 while Kostyuk could only manage to reach the R32 last year. Naomi Osaka’s aggressive baseline game will be tested against an exceptional mover on the court. The Japanese tennis star would love to bank on her raw power, especially with her forehand and serve. While the Ukrainian will look to make full use of her innovative shot-taking skills. Even in the rankings, Kostyuk (20) is currently way ahead of Osaka (173). But Naomi Osaka is a four-time Grand Slam champion! Will this be enough for her to snatch a victory against Kostyuk? No, I think she needs some more time to get back to her A-game.