Italian Open 2024: Danielle Collins vs Aryna Sabalenka; Preview, Head-to-Head, and Prediction

The Italian Open is the last big warm-up tournament on clay before the Roland Garros. And tell you what, the temperature in Rome is already shifting swiftly from hotter to hottest! In-form Danielle Collins takes on the world number 2, Aryna Sabalenka in the SF of the 2024 Italian Open. Find the coldest spot in your house before grabbing a bucket of popcorn and switching on your electronic devices to witness this epic encounter. Don’t say later we didn’t warn you!

In this match, there will surely not be any shortage of aggression on the court. Both of them play quite a similar brand of tennis and they love hitting their opponent’s racquet hard. But who will be the ultimate winner in this gripping encounter? Let me grab my protective gear first before choosing a winner from this match. Don’t wanna be in the bad books of either ‘Danimal‘ or the ‘Tiger’!

Danielle Collins vs Aryna Sabalenka: Preview

The American tennis star has been in the form of her life in 2024. She looks absolutely unstoppable at the moment. Danielle Collins has already clinched two titles this season and reached QFs of the other two tournaments before starting her campaign in Rome. In the Italian Open, she is yet to drop a set and defeated the former world number one Victoria Azarenka in her previous match by a 6-4,6-3 margin. Looking at the numbers from that match, Danielle Collins hit six aces and committed eight double-faults against Azarenka.

Her first-serve win percentage was 68% and on the second-serve, it was around 57%. But she could convert just five of her fifteen breakpoints against the Belarusian. Can she covert her half chances into fruitful results against the other Belarusian? Well, Danielle Collins recently stated, “I’m going out with a bang.“ So, we can surely expect that same “fearless” brand of tennis from her in this match as well. So far this year, Collins has hit 126 aces and committed 136 double faults. She has won 74.3% of her service games and 40.3% of her return games. But are these numbers enough to put her ahead of Sabalenka in this match?

For Aryna Sabalenka, this is a “dream tournament” and she will be looking forward to continuing her dream run in Rome with a win in the semis. Apart from winning the major title in Melbourne earlier this year, she has also featured in two finals and one QF in her previous tournaments this year. However, in Italy, she looked a bit rusty initially but then in the QF she put her injury concerns aside to defeat Jelena Ostapenko by 6-2,6-4. After the match, she said, “I would definitely say that it was the best performance of the tournament.“

Talking about her performance from that match, the Belarusian tennis star hit two aces and committed just one double fault in the entire match. Her first serve win percentage was around 81% but it dropped down to 55% on the second serve. Sabalenka converted three out of her seven breakpoints against Ostapenko. She has some interesting numbers from this season. Aryna Sabalenka has hit a total of 137 aces and committed 87 double faults so far. The world number two has won 78.7% of her service games and 36.5% of her return games in 2024. Can she repeat her dominating performance against Collins in the next match?

Collins vs Sabalenka: Head-to-head

Out of their five meetings so far in the Tour, three have come at the US Open. But currently, Aryna Sabalenka dominates the H2H by a 5-0 margin against the American. They first faced each other at the 2018 US Open, where Sabalenka defeated Collins by 6-0,4-6,6-4. Their latest meeting came this year at the R16 of the Madrid Open. In that match, Sabalenka yet again took three sets to defeat the American tennis star.

Looking at the numbers from that epic encounter, Danielle Collins managed to hit five aces and committed four double faults against Aryna Sabalenka. The Belarusian managed to hit four aces and committed an equal number of double faults in that match. Collins’ first serve win percentage was around 69% and on the second serve, it was just 39%. Aryna Sabalenka had a first serve win percentage of 68% and it dropped to 52% on the second serve. However, Collins looked a bit shaky in converting her breakpoints (4/11) but Sabalenka converted six out of her nine breakpoints. Now, after looking at all these stats, it’s time to take the call and pick the winner! Who will it be? ‘Danimal’ or ‘Tiger’?

Prediction: Collins will taste her first victory against Sabalenka in an end-to-end contest

Danielle Collins has won 19 of her last 20 matches. However, her only defeat in this epic run came against Aryna Sabalenka at the R16 of the Madrid Open. She will now be hungry to take her revenge on Sabalenka for ending her incredible winning streak last month. Currently, Collins has a win-loss record of 32-8 and Aryna Sabalenka has a record of 24-6. Although Sabalenka has dominated Collins in their previous encounters. But the American has showcased a completely different version of herself this year.

So it’s going to Sabalenka’s powerful serve and groundstrokes versus the equally venomous striking skills of Danielle Collins. For Sabalenka, it will be crucial to keep a check on her unforced errors. Danielle Collins also tends to hit a high number of winners, but it’s always accompanied by an equally high number of high-risk unforced errors. So, minimizing the errors will be the key to success in this equally-matched action-packed contest. But talking about the winner, Danielle Collins’ energy will be much more and her eagerness to prove herself against number 2 will take her through to the finals.