Iga Swiatek‘s loss is Aryna Sabalenka’s gain in the genuine sense. At least, that’s been the case since the US Open, where the World No. 1 faced defeat in the quarterfinals while the Belarusian won her third Grand Slam. Considering Swiatek hasn’t featured on the tour since then, the tennis world hasn’t seen a Part 4 to their thrilling rivalry this season. But as the season-ending tournament gets ever closer, the anticipation for a fourth WTA Finals meeting is palpable. And no one’s more excited than Sabalenka.

“Having this rivalry with Iga is something big in tennis and something much-needed in women’s tennis,” Sabalenka said after her first-round victory over Katarina Siniakova at the Wuhan Open. Notably, Swiatek withdrew from the Asian Swing in the build-up to the WTA Finals, and last week, she announced that she ended her three-year partnership with coach Tomasz Wiktorowski. She may have won six titles this year compared to Sabalenka’s three, but staying away from the tour for the past month hasn’t worked in Swiatek’s favor.

Courtesy of her strong start to 2024, Iga Swiatek had a stronghold on the WTA Race to Riyadh throughout the year. That is, until now. With the World No. 1 focusing on regaining her lost form, Aryna Sabalenka has been slowly cutting into Swiatek’s lead in the Live Race to the Finals, like a tigress stalking her prey. After all, consistency has been the name of the game for her.

Following her triumph in Flushing Meadows, the Belarusian reached the quarterfinals at the China Open, losing to eventual finalist Karolina Muchova in three sets. That result brought her within touching distance of Swiatek in the Race to Riyadh. And after defeating Siniakova (6-4, 6-4) in Wuhan, Sabalenka backed that win up with another one over Yulia Putintseva (1-6, 6-4, 6-0). That Round of 16 victory added 215 points to her tally, effectively making her the leader in the Race.

Now that she’s in the quarterfinals, the 26-year-old sits at 8306 points, 21 ahead of Swiatek. But why is this important? Well, the seeds for the WTA Finals are decided based on this Live Race to Riyadh. As things stand, Sabalenka will be the No. 1 seed. This just means that if the top-four seeds reach the semifinals in the Finals, Sabalenka will face the No. 4 seed in the final four. That’s to say that the No. 1 seed has the easiest route to the title, at least on paper.

But we’ve seen how unpredictable the tour can be. Case in point: Sabalenka’s loss to Muchova in Beijing. That said, the fight for the No. 1 seed in Riyadh is unlikely to change going forward. Other than the fact that the 26-year-old will probably rack up more points, it looks like Swiatek is already in Saudi Arabia, as disclosed by her manager. Per polskieradio.pl, “Świątek’s manager, Paula Wolecka, confirmed that the 23-year-old has been training with sparring partner Tomasz Moczek and is being supported on the court by Poland’s Fed Cup captain, Dawid Celt.”

Considering this, is there a chance Swiatek could slip further down the Live Race rankings? Well, that’s extremely unlikely. And that’s courtesy of the massive gap – as wide as the Amazon River – between the top two and the rest of the field. For reference, Coco Gauff, who sits in third after her victory in Beijing (which brought in a 1000-point influx), is on 5358 points. If the American were to win in Wuhan, the maximum number of points she would reach would be 5968.

As for Sabalenka, if she takes home the trophy, she’ll extend her lead with a tally of 9091 points. From the looks of it, Aryna Sabalenka is on a collision course to meet Iga Swiatek in the final of the WTA Finals. What did she have to say about the potential encounter? “Hopefully, we can play each other in a fight for World No. 1.” She’s chasing a return to the top of the rankings for the first time since September 2023. And she has every reason to stay positive!

Aryna Sabalenka could overtake Iga Swiatek as World No. 1

After winning last year’s WTA Finals, Swiatek has 1500 points to defend. She currently sits at the top of the WTA rankings with 9785 points. However, Sabalenka is leaping up the ladder and has 8716 points in her kitty. Thus, she isn’t far away from ending Swiatek’s stay at the top. Some words were burnt for Swiatek amid her absence from the WTA circuit.

Aryna Sabalenka said, “I mean, I love having this competition and I love seeing her in the draw. Yeah, I love to get to the finals and face her in the finals. It’s always great battles.

Loving the battles, she continued, “I always enjoy fights against her. But, I mean, I hope she’ll figure out the coach situation and she’ll be back in the Finals [year-end championships] in her best shape. Hopefully, we can play against each other there in the Finals, yeah, put it into a fight for world No. 1. That’s ideal.”

However, Sabalenka will get her laser-focused mind on the task at hand; yes, winning the Wuhan Open title. Can Sabalenka overtake Swiatek and end the year as the World No. 1? Let us know your views in the comments below.