French Open 2024: Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa; Preview, Head-to-Head, and Prediction

The ‘City of Love‘ is all set to witness the clash of ‘Soulmates‘ in the R3 of the 2024 French Open! Aryna Sabalenka and Paula Badosa have had some epic battles in the past, and this will be the third meeting in the 2024 season. The world number two is in red-hot form on the clay courts this season, while the former number two has had multiple withdrawals this season due to her injuries. Even in their last meeting, Paula Badosa was forced to retire in the third set. But this time, the Spaniard looks much fit and ready ahead of this mega clash!

Badosa said, “I’m really looking forward to that match. I think the last time [in Stuttgart], it finished in a sad way. I learned a lot from that match. I think it was a very good one from both sides.” While her ‘favorite opponent’, Aryna Sabalenka, heaped praise on the Spaniard by calling her a “great fighter.” Even Sabalenka thinks this is going to be a really “great battle“. But who among these two close friends will come out of this match with a brighter smile?

Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa: Preview

Aryna Sabalenka started her season with a final appearance in Brisbane and after that, she went on to defend her AO title. Apart from winning the title in Melbourne, the Belarusian tennis star has reached two finals and one QF ahead of the mega event in Paris. In the French Open, she comfortably defeated her two opponents in the first two rounds. Sabalenka defeated Moyuka Uchijima by 6-2,6-2 in her second-round match.

In that match, Aryna Sabalenka hit two aces and didn’t commit any double fault. Her first serve win percentage was 76% and on the second serve, it was around 72%. She converted four out of her seven breakpoints in that match. Saba has hit 152 aces so far this season and has committed almost 100 double faults. She has won 78.5% of her service games and 36.5% of her return games.

Her opponent in the third round of the French Open, Paula Badosa’s longest run has been reaching the R16 in her previous two occasions this year. She defeated Kazakhstan’s Yulia Putintseva by 4-6,6-1,7-5 in her previous match. Badosa hit three aces and committed just two double faults in the entire match.

Her first-serve win percentage was 63% and her second-serve win percentage was 80% in that match. She converted five out of her seven breakpoints in that match. If we look at her stats from this season, Paula Badosa has hit 71 aces and committed 101 double faults this season so far. She has won 69.2% of her service games and 31.9% of her return games. But who has won the most in their previous encounters?

Sabalenka vs Badosa: Head-to-Head

All is fair in love and war! These two players have played some very close matches on clay in the past. So don’t be surprised if the Spaniard pushes Aryna Sabalenka really deep into this match. But if we look at their H2H scoreline, well currently Sabalenka is leading it 4-2. Their first two meetings have been won by Paula Badosa and the last four have gone in Sabalenka’s favor. The first meeting was at the Cincinnati Masters in 2021, in that match the Spaniard outclassed the Belarusian by 5-7,6-2,7-6.

Their last meeting was at the R16 of the Stuttgart Open earlier this year. In that match, Paula Badosa (139) really gave a tough fight to the world number 2. However, unfortunately for the Spaniard, she had to retire after playing three sets. Aryna Sabalenka was declared the winner at the scoreline 7-6(4),4-6,3-3. This match is an indication of what the fans are gonna witness in Paris. So be ready for some fireworks.

Looking at the stats from that match, Badosa hit four aces and committed five double faults. Whereas, Sabalenka also hit four aces in that match but she committed just three double faults. Saba won 71% of her first serve and 47% of her second serve. On the other hand, Paul Badosa won 65% of her first serve and 62% of her second serve against the Belarusian. She converted four out of her eleven breakpoints in that match whereas Aryna Sabalenka successfully converted three of her nine breakpoints.

Prediction: Sabalenka to win in three sets

Aryna Sabalenka has looked almost unstoppable this year. Although she failed to clinch a few more titles by losing the finals this season, her win-loss record is currently 25-7. She has, in fact, dropped only seven games so far in this tournament. So carrying forward this momentum in her next match will be something Sabalenka will be eyeing at the moment. Talking about her playing style, Sabalenka is a baseline with a powerful, aggressive style of play. She has real venom in her serves and groundstrokes.

Apart from her power-packed game, she has added a new weapon to her armory! Aryna Sabalenka has now started to employ more drop shots in her matches to surprise her opponents and this might come pretty much handy on this surface. But she needs to bring in more accuracy in her serves and reduce the number of double fault counts.

On the other hand, Paula Badsoa also displays an aggressive brand of tennis from the baselines. Her game is more centered around her big serve and powerful groundstrokes. Her favorite surface is clay, favorite person on the tour is perhaps, Aryna Sabalenka. But is she a favorite to win this match? No, Sabalenka’s current form will always keep her ahead of the Spaniard!