Jessica Pegula‘s performance at the Cincinnati Masters makes it seem like the victory in Toronto hasn’t satisfied her yet. Currently on a tremendous win streak, the 30-year-old is proving that age is just a number for her. After securing a spot in the R16 showdown over Taylor Townsend, she is now ready to test her levels with another gripping challenge against Leylah Fernandez. The Canadian, who has already secured three notable wins in the ongoing event is now looking forward to gaining another one. But who has better odds of winning? Let’s find out!

Jessica Pegula vs Leylah Fernandez: Preview

Pegula made her entry into the Cincinnati Masters after a dominant title defense run in Toronto, where she dropped just one set. This achievement marked her second title of the season after a commendable win in Berlin. Currently holding the World No.6 slot, Pegula has consistently performed well in Cincinnati as she never lost in the opening round since her main draw debut five years ago. She defeated fellow American Taylor Townsend 6-2, 6-3 in her last match, sending a clear message of her strong form during the North American swing.

Fernandez, on the other hand, made a strong statement at the Cincinnati Masters by taking down fourth seed Elena Rybakina in a thrilling three-set match. Fernandez saved two match points and proved that pressure is just a word for her. This victory marks her first top-5 win since reaching the 2021 US Open final. Now, she aims for her fourth quarterfinal of the season, having already reached that stage in Doha, Birmingham, and Eastbourne. The WTA star earned this spot by defeating Diana Schnaider with a final scoreline of 6-1, 6-4.

Pegula vs Fernandez: Head-to-head

Pegula leads in the H2H with Fernandez. They have played against each other once, in the Miami Open this year. The 30-year-old managed to secure a commendable win with a final score of 7-5, 6-4. The upcoming match at the Cincinnati Masters would mark their second meeting overall and on hard courts as well.

Prediction: Pegula to win in straight sets

Pegula is favored to win in straight sets against Fernandez in their upcoming match. The American WTA star’s recent form has been outstanding. This includes a commendable run in Toronto, where she dropped just one set on her journey to lift the trophy. She also has a higher second-serve win rate (52.53%) compared to Fernandez (45.21%) over the past six months which would have a strong influence on the upcoming showdown.

Pegula has proved to be a model of consistency on hard courts, which she claims is her favorite surface. She has gathered 244 wins in a total of 371 matches played on this surface. Fernandez, even after being strong on indoor hard courts, lags behind Pegula’s overall performance with a 63% win rate in a total of 197 matches played. When it comes to return games, both players are nearly identical with Fernandez slightly edging Pegula out on second-serve returns at 58.53% compared to 58.51%. Along with that, Pegula also holds a small advantage on first-serve returns.

Both players are dominant on first serves as Pegula had an 88% win rate against Townsend and Fernandez had an 83% win rate against Shnaider. Therefore, both will have to play a fantastic return game to take the lead.

“It’s kind of funny, I keep saying it looks like a bad year,” Pegula said before the tournament, “but I’ve won a 500 and a 1000. I think I know that the level is still there, obviously. I just need to stay healthy and try and do my best for the rest of the year. But yeah, it’s turned around a little bit.” Pegula’s experience and recent form make her the clear favorite to win this match in straight sets.