What exactly do you think is the key to Aryna Sabalenka‘s consistent dominance on the courts? “It’s good to have a short memory. That helps to keep things moving and working hard and improving.” It is hard to doubt this strategy as it has helped her secure the quarter-finals of a tournament with probably the fastest hard courts. Liudmila Samsonova stands in her way as a notable competitor. The Russian is already on a three-match win streak and is also determined to extend it. But who among the two rivals is more likely to win?

Aryna Sabalenka vs Liudmila Samsonova: Preview

Sabalenka, ranked 2, won her opening match against Elisabetta Cocciaretto 6-3, 6-4, though she had to save three break points. Sabalenka has a strong track record at the Cincinnati Masters, reaching the semifinals three times, including the last two editions. After missing Wimbledon due to a shoulder injury, she reached the semifinals in Washington, D.C., and the quarterfinals in Toronto. Although she hasn’t won a title since the Australian Open, she has consistently reached the quarterfinals in her last seven tournaments, showing resilience despite not being at her best.

Samsonova stands on a 22-18 record in 2024, including 8-10 on hard courts. The Russian has proved to be strong enough in the Western & Southern Open as she took down the top 50 players including Wang Xinyu and Magda Linette. She showed remarkable levels of dominance against Linette by saving three set points before winning in straight sets. A victory in her next match would be her fourth streak of three or more consecutive victories in 2024.

Sabalenka vs Samsonova: Head-to-head

Sabalenka and Samsonova will face each other for the fourth time in their upcoming showdown at the Cincinnati Masters. Samsonova leads their head-to-head 2-1, with all matches played on hard courts in major tournaments.

Their most recent meeting was recorded at the 2023 Montreal tournament where Samsonova won 7-6, 4-6, 6-3. The previous year had similar other meetings, including the one in Adelaide, where Sabalenka won 7-6, 7-6. Their first meeting was in Guadalajara in 2022, where Samsonova won 6-4, 2-6, 6-2.

Prediction: Sabalenka to win in three sets

Sabalenka is favored to win her upcoming match against Samsonova in three sets. Sabalenka’s recent form has been strong as she won 71% of her matches this season, while Samsonova’s number is slightly lower, with 63%. To be more specific about the hard courts, Sabalenka has a massive lead with a 71% career win rate, compared to Samsonova’s dominance, which is limited to grass.

Both players have similar stats in second-serve returns, with each winning approximately 55% points. However, Sabalenka has a slight edge on second serve performance as she has established a 51% win rate which is higher in comparison to Samsonova’s 49%. Along with that, Sabalenka has also proved to be better during pressure situations as she saved 61% of breakpoints which is also narrowly better than Samsonova’s 60%.

Their most recent matches make it clear that the upcoming one would be a close contest. Sabalenka comfortably managed to take down Elina Svitolina, while Samsonova fought hard to defeat Elina Avanesyan. The Tiger comes fresh from a vacation after her decision to skip the grass-court major event in Wimbledon.

“I think it was very necessary to take a break, spend some time with myself and realize a lot of things,” she said, making it clear that the break has helped her set things right. Sabalenka’s ability to grind out wins, even after not being at her best, gives her the advantage over her upcoming match rival.

Fans can expect an intense showdown, with Sabalenka to win in three sets.