“She’s defending champion, and she came out just firing. I was not ready for that at all.” Jessica Pegula was relieved to come back strongly against defending champion Danielle Collins on Friday. In the quarterfinal of the Charleston Open, the World No.4 managed to bounce back after losing the first set to end Danimal’s title defense on the green clay court. This is Pegula’s second straight semifinal this season after Miami and third straight semifinal in Charleston.

As she looks to make her way to the Charleston summit clash for the first time in her career, the 30-year-old American has got Ekaterina Alexandrova standing in her way, who’s coming off an emphatic win over Qinweng Zheng in the Round of 8. So who’s got the edge ahead of this battle?

Jessica Pegula v Ekaterina Alexandrova: Preview

Jessica Pegula’s 2025 season has been impressive so far. Back in January, she started her season making it to the final of the Adelaide International, where she lost to compatriot Madison Keys. In the Australian Open thereafter, she failed to go past the third round after Serbia’s Olga Danilovic edged her out in straight sets. Her next campaign in the Qatar Open was modest as well, as she lost in the QF to Ekaterina Alexandrova. Pegula then concluded the Middle East swing with an R16 exit in Dubai, but as she got back home, the US Open finalist regained her form.

At the ATX Open in Austin, last month, she beat compatriot McCartney Kessler with a score line of 7-5, 6-2 in the final. In the Indian Wells, Pegula couldn’t move past the fourth round, facing a defeat against Elina Svitolina. However, she found the winning momentum in Miami again, making it to her maiden final there. Unfortunately, she failed to outperform World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka. But she carried the momentum to the Charleston Open, beating Iryna Shymanovich in straight sets 6-0, 6-3 in her opening match.

Pegula then took out the Aussie Ajla Tomljanovic in R16, before eliminating the defending champion Danielle Collins in the quarterfinals with a score line of 1-6, 6-3, 6-0.

Her opponent, Ekaterina Alexandrova, on the other hand, has also had a decent season overall. She couldn’t begin the year on a winning note after facing first-round defeat at the Brisbane International against Ons Jabeur. Her poor form continued in Adelaide and the Australian Open, too, where she was ousted in the R16 and the first round, respectively. However, the Russian WTA pro came back strongly to win her first trophy of the season at the Linz Open, where she beat Ukraine’s Dayana Yastremska in the final with a score line of 6-2, 3-6, 7-5.

She maintained the consistency in Doha as well, where she made it to the semifinal stage. Unfortunately, Alexandrova couldn’t reach the title clash there after losing to the eventual winner Amanda Anisimova in straight sets in the R4. Her next three campaigns, thereafter, were nowhere close to impressive as she faced back-to-back R64 exits in Dubai, Indian Wells, and Miami.

But it appears she’s found her rhythm in Charleston. Alexandrova began her campaign with a straight-set win over Ann Li, before eliminating compatriot Diana Shnaider in the next round with a score line of 6-2, 6-1. She then took out World No.8 Qinwen Zheng in the QF (6-1, 6-4) to make it to the last four.

Pegula vs Alexandrova: Head-to-Head

Pegula and Alexandrova have locked horns on three occasions so far. Currently, the Russian pro leads the h2h tally 2-1. The last time they clashed, it was this season itself in February. During the quarterfinal round of the Qatar Open, Alexandrova beat Pegula with a score line of 4-6, 6-1, 6-1.

• 2025 Qatar Open QF: Alexandrova 4-6, 6-1, 6-1
• 2024 Miami Open QF: Alexandrova 3-6, 6-4, 6-4
• 2021 Italian Open R16: Pegula 6-2, 6-4

Prediction: Jessica Pegula to win in three sets

Jessica Pegula‘s overall singles record in 2025 is far better than her SF opponent in Charleston. The World No.4 has won 23 of her 29 matches compared to Alexandrova’s record of 12-7. When it comes to event history, Pegula has made it to the semifinal of the Charleston Open twice. In her previous three appearances (2022, 2023, and 2024), she reached the R16 once, followed by back-to-back SF appearances. This edition marks her third straight entry in the last four.

On the other hand, Alexandrova has also reached the semifinal of Charleston once, which was back in 2022. In the last two editions, she has been ousted from R8 and R32, respectively.

But what about their playing styles? Well, Pegula is generally known for her tactical presence on the court. She’s got effective groundstrokes, but it’s her ability to cover the court smoothly that sets her apart. And don’t forget her down-the-line backhand, which she mostly uses to dictate rallies. Speaking of Alexandrova, she loves playing more aggressively as compared to Pegula. She mixes her powerful serves with lethal groundstrokes to build pressure on the rivals.

Going by the recent form, however, it seems Jessica Pegula might emerge victorious on Saturday. It might be a close match, but Pegula should be able to edge Alexandrova out in three sets.