“It wasn’t the greatest tennis from either of us,” Jessica Pegula said regarding her R16 match. Despite a straight-forward victory, Pegula felt that she could’ve done much better in that match. Such have been the high standards that she has set for herself this year. After a disappointing Paris Olympics campaign, Pegula is looking to come back strongly at the US Open swing. And with the last Grand Slam of the year not far away, the time is right for the American star to peak.

Pegula has breezed into the quarterfinals of the Canadian Open and will take on her compatriot, Peyton Stearns next. While Pegula is the favorite in the clash between two American stars, Stearns can defeat any opponent on her day. Thus, it promises to be a thriller of a contest in Toronto. Let’s analyze the odds!

Jessica Pegula vs Peyton Stearns: Preview

Pegula has been among the top stars on the WTA Tour for quite some time now. However, a Grand Slam title still eludes her and she is aiming to dig deep at the US Open later this month. Pegula has begun her preparations for her home Grand Slam tournament on a positive note, reaching the last eight at the Canadian Open. She will be looking to win her second title of the season in Toronto and has had barely any challenges so far in the tournament.

No 3 seed Jessica Pegula continued her title defence at the National Bank Open with a scrappy win over talented young qualifier Ashlyn Krueger, eventually easing past her fellow American 6-2, 6-4 to reach the last eight at the Aviva Centre.

However, 22-year-old Stearns is in good form of late after a not-so-good start to the year. She has already won a title this season and has her sight on the Canadian Open title after upsetting the likes of Madison Keys and Victoria Azarenka earlier on in the tournament.

Stearns reached the quarter-finals of the National Bank Open when Belarusian Victoria Azarenka, the No 12 seed, retired injured. Stearns, ranked No 53, led 6-4, 4-2 when Azarenka, ranked No 19, pulled out at the Aviva Centre on Friday evening. Pegula will be next on her list as she faces a familiar foe.

Pegula vs Stearns: Head-to-head

At 22, Stearns is still in the early days of her career while Pegula has had the experience of big encounters. Nonetheless, the two have faced off against each other before once. Pegula and Stearns found each other on the opposite side of the court at the Citi Open in Washington last year, where Stearns got a main draw entry as a lucky loser. Pegula, the top seed there, had a comfortable straight-set victory over Stearns in that match. Given her experience and past h2h record, Pegula looks like a strong favorite in today’s match. But what about other odds?

Prediction: Pegula to sail through to the semifinals

While Pegula is ranked Number 6 in the world, Stearns is outside the top 50 of the WTA rankings and occupies the 43rd spot. Another major factor working in the favor of Pegula is her win-loss record this year. Pegula has won 20 of the 29 matches played in 2024 on the WTA Tour. On the contrary, Stearns has suffered more losses than wins, having a win-loss record of 16-17.

However, one concerning factor for Pegula has been her serve of late. Her first serve percentage has taken a major hit this tournament. For example, in her win over Krueger, Pegula landed just 48.3% of first serves, a considerably low percentage for a player of her caliber. As a result, Stearns would try to use this to her advantage and make attacking returns.

Nonetheless, Pegula is the defending champion here and has made it to the semifinals at least in her previous three appearances at the Canadian Open. Meanwhile, Stearns lost the R64 match that she played last year in Toronto before this edition.

Although Pegula hasn’t been satisfied with her performances at the Canadian Open, she has had to break hardly any sweat. Expect a similar situation today when she faces Stearns in the last eight. Pegula is predicted to win the match in straight sets against her compatriot and enter the semifinals. She is on the course to defend her title and will play her match on the Center Court later today.