Belarusian superstar Aryna Sabalenka remains the woman to beat in Melbourne. The two-time AO champion is currently riding on an 18-match winning street at Melbourne Park, including title runs in 2023 and 2024. She literally thrashed Russia’s Mirra Andreeva in the fourth round and guess what? Sabalenka is all set to face another Russian, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, in the QF. Can the 33-year-old Russian stop the winning run of the defending champion on Tuesday (January 21)?

Aryna Sabalenka vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: Preview

Aryna Sabalenka had a wonderful outing in the 2024 season. She won the 2024 AO title by beating China’s Qinwen Zheng by 6-3,6-2 and then after that, she reached the finals in the Madrid Open and the Italian Open. However, on both of those occasions, she faced defeat at the hands of Iga Swiatek. After that, she defeated Jessica Pegula twice to clinch the Cincinnati Masters and the US Open. Aryna Sabalenka’s next title triumph came in Wuhan and interestingly, this Belarusian star also managed to start the 2025 season by winning the Brisbane International. Sabalenka is yet to drop a set in this tournament. She defeated Andreeva by 6-1,6-2 in the fourth round.

Can she put up a similar display of dominance against someone like Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova? Well, if look at Pavlyuchenkova’s record in the 2024 season, she reached the semis at the Linz Open and the Qatar Open. After that, she also made it to the QFs in San Diego and Cincinnati. However, despite all these long runs, she failed to clinch a title last season. Pavlyuchenkova is entering this contest following her 7-6(0),6-0 win over Croatia’s Donna Vekić. It’ll be interesting to see how she approached this match against the defending champion. Have these two met each other in their careers previously, though?

Sabalenka vs Pavlyuchenkova: Head-to-Head

Yes, this will be their fourth meeting! Guess who’s leading the H2H scoreline? Well, surprisingly, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is currently leading the H2H record by a 2-1 margin. When asked about this impressive record against Aryna Sabalenka, she said, “I don’t even think about the record against (Sabalenka). She’s obviously a different player now. I mean, she’s the No.1 player in the world, playing so strong. She’s very powerful. I don’t know what to expect actually.”

• 2021 Roland Garros R32: Pavlyuchenkova 6-4,2-6,6-0.
• 2021 Madrid SF: Sabalenka 6-2,6-3.
• 2019 Toronto R64: Pavlyuchenkova 3-6,6-3,7-5.

Prediction: Sabalenka to win in straight sets

Surprised? Well, one shouldn’t dare to go against the ‘Tigress’, especially when we’re at her den! Two out of her three Grand Slam titles have come at this place. On the other hand, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova’s best records in this tournament have been reaching the QF thrice (2017, 2019, and 2020) before this edition. If we take a at their form in the last twelve months, Aryna Sabalenka (1) had a win-loss record of 56-14 in 2024. She’s yet to lose a match in 2025! On the other hand, Pavlyuchenkova (32) had a win-loss record of 25-20 last season.

Now, taking a glimpse at their playing styles, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova’s strength is her power from both sides. She is known for her powerful groundstrokes and aggressive style of play. Her consistency and versatility make her a real special player on the Tour. Talking about her biggest weapons, then it’s surely going to be her forehand-down-the-line. Her biggest weakness has been a high number of double fault counts. She hit 144 aces last season but committed 174 double faults! Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova needs to keep things a bit tidy if she really wants to challenge someone like Sabalenka.

Aryna Sabalenka is more of a baseliner with a similar powerful, aggressive style of play. She can generate a lot of power behind her serves and groundstrokes. Sabalenka’s game is more based on taking control of points and hitting winners. If she gets a grip on this match right from the word ‘go’, then this match is going to wrap up pretty quickly. Like what we saw against Andreeva. We’re expecting a similar dominating performance by the defending champ in this epic QF clash. So, Aryna Sabalenka over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova for the QF of the 2025 AO!