With each passing day, the competition is only getting tougher and tougher at the Australian Open. Only a handful of names remain now, the quest for the title is on. One among those stars is Danielle Collins, who already knows what it feels like to be in the finals (she reached the 2022 AO finals). While she couldn’t lay her hands on the title, this year could be hers, only if Madison Keys lets her pass in a thrilling 3rd round encounter. With the stage set for an epic encounter, who will win?

Danielle Collins vs Madison Keys: Preview

Currently ranked no. 11 in the world, Danielle Collins has been solid so far, overcoming Daria Snigur and Destanee Aiava in tight matches. Against Aiava, Collins showed her aggressive style, blasting 44 winners but she also struggled with consistency. She made 12 double faults during the match. Danimal won 79% of points on her first serve but only 42% on her second and that’s the vulnerability Madison Keys can exploit.

Collins has broken serve 4 times and saved 9 break points in the tournament. However, she has conceded only one set in the competition. Not only this, she also has a 2-1 win-loss record in 2025 that shows that she is still finding her rhythm.

On the other hand, her opponent, world No. 14 Madison Keys has carried her Adelaide International title-winning momentum into Melbourne. She defeated Ann Li and Elena Gabriela Ruse in hard-fought matches, showcasing her power. Against Ruse, Keys fired 44 winners but also showed control on his serve, committing only 4 double faults.

Not only this, Keys won 65% of her first-serve points and broke serve 4 times, converting an impressive 50% of her break-point opportunities. Her ability to stay composed under pressure has been a key factor.

Both players thrive on aggression, with powerful groundstrokes and big serving. Keys has the edge in serving consistency, putting in 69% of first serves compared to Collins’ 57%. However, Collins’ ability to grind and win key points under pressure could pose a challenge.

Collins vs Keys: Head-to-head

When it comes to the head-to-head statistics between the two players, Madison Keys has the slightest of advantages. With a 2-1 advantage, Keys will be heading into the match with an upper hand. However, they both are tied 1-1 each when it comes to hard-court encounters. Their first encounter came back in 2018 at the Indian Wells which Collins won in straight sets, 6-3, 7-6. On the contrary, their last encounter was back in 2024 at the Strasbourg Open which was won by Keys 6-1, 6-2.

Prediction: Madison Keys might trouble Danielle Collins in the match

Madison Keys is known for her explosive game, which is built around powerful groundstrokes and a strong serve. Her confidence is high after winning the Adelaide International, showing her sharpness. Already a three-time quarterfinalist in Melbourne, she knows the conditions well. However, her inconsistency can be a concern. She showed lapses in focus in her match against Ruse, which could prove costly against tougher opponents.

On the other hand, Danielle Collins thrives under pressure, showing tenacity in grueling matches. Her aggressive baseline play and ability to take the ball early often disrupt her opponents’ rhythm. She reached the Australian Open final in 2022 and has proven her mettle at this venue.

Despite her strengths, Collins’ recent form has been shaky. She has struggled to close out matches cleanly, and the physical fatigue from two tough matches may leave her vulnerable.

Coming into the match, Madison Keys has an edge with heavier groundstrokes and superior power. Keys’ serve will be crucial, while Collins needs consistent returns to stay competitive. While Collins thrives in pressure moments, Keys’ momentum could be decisive.

Prediction: Madison Keys enters the contest as the favorite, with her form and confidence likely overpowering Collins. However, expect a hard-fought match.