Best friends off the court and rivals on the court. That’s what Paula Badosa and Aryna Sabalenka are. Looking for her 3rd grand slam title, the Belarusian knows what it takes to achieve glory at this level. For Badosa, it’s unchartered territory, having reached the semi-finals for the first time, but she will look to carry forward her momentum. But, the main question still lies: Who will win?

Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa: Preview

World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka has reached the semifinals with some very strong performances. She defeated Sloane Stephens (6-3, 6-2), Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (6-3, 7-5), Clara Tauson (7-6(5), 6-4), Mirra Andreeva (6-1, 6-2), and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (6-2, 2-6, 6-3) on her way to the semis.

In the quarterfinals, Sabalenka overcame Pavlyuchenkova with a score of 6-2, 2-6, 6-3. She scored 81 points compared to Pavlyuchenkova’s 73 and hit 34 winners with an aggressive style of play. Sabalenka served 3 aces and made 3 double faults. She was broken 5 times but saved 3 break points.

Her first-serve percentage was 69%, winning 65% of points on her first serve and 43% on her second serve. Sabalenka broke her opponent’s serve 6 times, converting 75% of her break-point chances. So far, she has lost just one set in the tournament and has won 55% of all points played. Her best result this year was winning the Brisbane title, where she defeated Polina Kudermetova in the final. Sabalenka has a perfect 10-0 win-loss record in 2025, all on hard courts.

On the other hand, Paula Badosa ranked No. 12, also advanced to the semifinals. She defeated Xinyu Wang (6-3, 7-6(5)), Talia Gibson (6-1, 6-0), Marta Kostyuk (6-4, 4-6, 6-3), Olga Danilovic (6-1, 7-6(2)), and Coco Gauff (7-5, 6-4).

In the quarterfinals, Badosa won a straight-set match against Gauff, scoring 78 points to Gauff’s 71 and hitting 23 winners. She served 3 aces and made 2 double faults. Badosa was broken twice but saved one break point. She had a first-serve percentage of 57%, winning 64% of points on her first serve and 63% on her second serve. She broke Gauff’s serve 4 times, converting 40% of her break-point chances.

Like Sabalenka, she has dropped only one set in the tournament and has won 55% of all points played. Badosa’s overall record in 2025 is 6-2, with all matches played on hard courts.

Sabalenka vs Badosa: Head-to-head

When it comes to the head-to-head stats between the two players, Aryna Sabalenka has been a clear winner. Out of the 7 encounters that the two have had against each other, the Belarusian star leads 5-2. Their first meeting was at the Cincinnati Open in 2021. The match and the next one were won by Paula Badosa. However, since then, Badosa has been on a 5-match losing streak with their latest encounter taking place at the French Open last year.

Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka to clinch the win in a hard-fought match

Aryna Sabalenka’s aggressive baseline game and powerful serve are her key strengths. Her raw power allows her to dictate play, and her strong serve often gives her an advantage in tight situations. She also comes into this match with a remarkable 19-match winning streak at the Australian Open and an incredible 32-1 record on Australian soil since 2023. Sabalenka has demonstrated her ability to perform in clutch moments, having a 3-0 record in her last three Grand Slam semifinals.

However, Sabalenka has shown occasional inconsistencies under pressure, as evident from her set losses to Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Clara Tauson earlier in the tournament. These lapses suggest she might be vulnerable if pushed by a determined opponent. Paula Badosa could be just that opponent, as her all-around game and mental resilience are well-suited to challenging Sabalenka’s dominance. Badosa’s ability to handle high-pressure moments was evident in her impressive quarterfinal win against Coco Gauff, where she displayed remarkable composure.

Badosa’s solid baseline play, variety, and tactical skills make her a well-rounded and dangerous competitor. Her ability to construct points and adapt her game to the situation will be key in disrupting Sabalenka’s rhythm. Coming into the semifinal, Badosa has carried over her momentum from a successful 2024 season. However, this is her first Grand Slam semifinal, and the weight of the occasion could test her nerves, making it a significant mental challenge.

The outcome of the match will likely hinge on a few key factors. Sabalenka’s serve will play a pivotal role; if she maintains a high first-serve percentage and minimizes double faults, she will have the upper hand. On the other hand, Badosa’s tactical versatility and ability to extend rallies could be effective in neutralizing Sabalenka’s power. However, the head-to-head advantage and her past records on the hard court suggest Sabalenka will win the match.