Naomi Osaka’s struggles on clay were evident at the 2024 Madrid Open, where she suffered a second-round exit at the hands of the 15th seed Liudmila Samsonova, losing in a tough two-hour, 22-minute battle. Despite a promising start, Osaka couldn’t overcome Samsonova, who snapped a 4-match losing streak. That defeat extended her drought of back-to-back clay-court wins, a feat she hadn’t achieved since 2019. However, things seem to have shifted in 2025. As Osaka returns to the Spanish capital, the former top seed from Japan faces a challenging draw: potentially coming up against three red-hot Americans this time. 

Naomi Osaka has faced a tough start to her 2025 season, beginning with the Australian Open, where she made it to the third round but was forced to withdraw because of injury, allowing Belinda Bencic a walkover into the fourth round. Her struggles continued at Indian Wells as well, where she suffered an early exit in the Round of 128, falling in a tight battle against Camila Osorio. Contrarily, she reached R16 in Miami to build the momentum for Madrid Open. However, Osaka’s path won’t get any easier.

Per WTA Tennis’ Madrid Open projected draw, Naomi Osaka will kick off her campaign against Italy’s Lucia Bronzetti in the first round. Should she advance, she’s likely to face Madison Keys, who, has struggled for consistency, with losses in Indian Wells (SFs), the Miami Open (R32), and Charleston (R16), since her big win over Aryna Sabalenka at the Australian Open. However, with a 3-1 head-to-head record against Osaka, the American fifth seed will be eager to reset and make a powerful statement on Madrid’s clay.

This will be followed by a potential third-round clash with Russia’s Anna Kalinskaya. The fourth round could see her battle another American star, Emma Navarro or Donna Vekic. The Japanese tennis star has a 0-1 record against Navarro.

If Osaka progresses beyond that, a QF showdown with either Jelena Ostapenko or defending champion Iga Swiatek may be on the cards. A semifinal match might pit her against teenage sensation Mirra Andreeva or current 4th seed Coco Gauff.

Recently dropping to 4th in WTA ranks after Jessica Pegula overtook her, Gauff has had a patchy season. A mixed Middle East swing followed a quarterfinal exit at the Australian Open, and she later suffered early losses at Indian Wells and Miami. Though she reached the quarterfinals in Stuttgart, Gauff will be hungry to bounce back and add another big title to her resume. With a 3-2 head-to-head record against Osaka, their matchup would be one to watch.

And if she reaches the final, a blockbuster face-off with Aryna Sabalenka could cap off her title quest in Madrid.

Despite the threats, Osaka has shown glimpses of resurgence on clay this season. With the right rhythm, she might surprise a few.

Naomi Osaka gears up for the challenges of the upcoming European clay-court season

Holding a 13-9 record so far this year, which includes walkovers at the ASB Classic and Australian Open, the 4-time Grand Slam champion is eager to rediscover her top form on a surface that’s long been a challenge for her. Making her 6th appearance at the Madrid Open, Osaka is looking for a breakthrough performance that can kick-start her clay season. Osaka is ready!

In a recent IG post, Osaka gave fans a peek into her training routine. The former top seed was seen drilling forehands, sharpening her powerful serve, and grinding through cardio sessions: all clear signs of her renewed determination to make her mark on the red dirt. She captioned the update, “That’s a wrap on week 1 of clay,” showing her lighthearted yet focused mindset.

Adding to the momentum, her new coach, Patrick Mouratoglou, also shared a glimpse of their training session in Madrid. The video showed Osaka practicing with intensity and joy, accompanied by the caption, “It’s a tennis story with a jump, some flair and great mood at practice. Filmed at the @mouratoglou_tennis_academy. Enjoy! #tennis #tennislife #tennistips”

And now, the stage is set. Can Naomi Osaka finally shine on clay in Madrid, starting against the Italian Lucia Bronzetti? What’s your take on that?