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Can Japan's basketball team really challenge Team USA, or is it just wishful thinking?

8 consecutive Olympic gold medals! That is the target set for Team USA’s “next chapter in The Greatest Dynasty Ever” in Paris. And, that is what is expected of them, considering that on the past 7 occasions, no team stood any chance against them. Having said that, they wouldn’t want to underestimate any of their group-stage opponents. Especially considering the fact that their opening game is a repeat of the last Olympics’ gold medal clash.

Japan. The land of the rising sun. Well, it is safe to say that it has become the land of some rising women’s basketball superstars as well. And this was the case when this workaholic nation proved its efficiency on the hardwood. By making it to the podium as hosts, the Akatsuki became the first Asian country to secure an Olympic basketball medal in 28 years. Now, they have another chance to right perhaps the biggest wrong of their basketball legacy.

And history suggests that they can as they are one of only two nations who handed Team USA a defeat in Olympic history (1976). But, do the exploits of the past 3 years provide them a chance to cause such a monumental upset?

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Japan’s building up for the Olympics

A 75–90 defeat in the Final of the Tokyo Olympics doesn’t in any way take away the immense potential this team has. And if anyone doesn’t believe that, just ask the current host nation France. The London 2012 silver medallists saw a glimpse of what they are capable of when Rui Machida’s Olympic record of 18 assists toppled them in the semi-final stage. That has not been all for this warrior group of ballers who are continuously working towards getting better.

Ranked 9th overall, Japan holds supremacy in Asia. This is evident by the fact that they are a 6x gold medalist in the FIBA Women’s Asia Cup. The latest one arrived just 1 year after their Olympic heroics. Following this, they didn’t live up to the expectations in the 2022 FIBA World Cup where they finished 9th.

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Can Japan's basketball team really challenge Team USA, or is it just wishful thinking?

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Then, the 30th edition of the FIBA Women’s Asia Cup saw them making a run for a second consecutive gold. Unfortunately, the Akatsuki Five came up short against 12x champions, China. Nonetheless, some impressive shows in their exhibition outings swung some tides in their favor. Out of the 7 games, they managed to end up on the winning side on 5 occasions, beating the likes of their 2023 FIBA Women’s Asia Cup China and New Zealand.

As it turns out, the current roster consists of a very strong core for them. Amidst that is a “MASTER & APPRENTICE” duo who can help survive this “Group of Death”.

The combination of Rui Machida & Mai Yamamoto

An illustrious career comprising 3 Asia Cup gold medals and Olympic silver sums up the veteran career of Rui Machida. The 31-year-old became only the 4th Japanese player to enter the WNBA in 2022. However, her participation with the Washington Mystics and a series of injuries kept her from performing national duties for 3 years. But her playmaking abilities and international experience paved the way for her in the 12-player roster chosen for the Olympics.

At the same time, some fresh legs are also brewing through this year’s Olympics team. The one who has tasted some international success is Mai Yamamoto. The 24-year-old played an instrumental part in bringing home Japan’s world title in basketball in the form of a 3X3 Under-23 World Cup held in 2019. Moreover, she also managed to help the 3X3 team secure a  5th position in Tokyo. Consequently, this ensured her a position in the 5-on-5 senior FIBA Asia Cup gold-winning roster in Jordan.

But, FIBA Women’s Olympic Qualifying Tournament 2024 in Sopron, Hungary provided an actual glimpse of what she is actually capable of. The Toyota Antelope grabbed the tournament’s MVP honors to go along with the tournament’s leading scorer status. Yamamoto had 17.0 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game while shooting 62% from the field.

With such powerful weapons in their arsenal, it is also worth a watch as to what will be the path for Japan for a second consecutive medal.

What does the future hold for Japan in the 2024 Olympics?

Survival is indeed tough for the Akatsuki Five in Group C. It comprises the reigning European champions Belgium, along with world No.19 Germany and of course 9x Olympic champions, the USA. July 29 will mark the beginning of their Olympic journey against the defending champs. 2 days later, a German juggernaut awaits them and they cap off their group stage against Belgium on August 4. If they can secure a win in at least 2 out of these 3 games, an automatic qualification is guaranteed for them into the quarter-finals. Anyhow, if they finish 3rd in the group, a favorable ranking can still keep their campaign alive.

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Hardly anyone would argue that Japan possesses the firepower to surprise everyone yet again at the grandest stage of them all. Despite having such tough opponents in the group, it would be premature to count them out. It will be an interesting and exciting few days for whoever is backing them to repeat their previous heroics.

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Stay tuned for more such updates. And, join us for the exciting pilot episode of the “Dual Threat Show”. Our host BG12 sits down with Georgia Bulldogs star and SEC All-Freshman Team Selection, Silas Demary Jr.