New York Liberty’s Jonquel Jones has an interesting theory, and it’s based on a personal and rather painful experience. For her, Game 3 isn’t just another matchup; it’s the game that often tilts the series one way or another. If Jones is right (and she might be), losing Game 3 could be a massive problem for Liberty. After all, they’ve got a bit of a habit of struggling with it. 

The 2021 WNBA MVP explains, “Game 3 is super important. In 2019, I was in a similar position—I was playing against the Mystics, they won the first one and we won the second one, we kept going back and forth—it’s going to be important to change the sway of everything right now in this game. It’s going to be really important.”

Her theory predicts, ‘Most times, the team that wins Game 3 goes on to win the series.‘ And, unfortunately, as she reveals, the Liberty power forward knows this all too well. When in 2019, Jones was with the Connecticut Sun, battling it out in the Finals against the Washington Mystics. 

Both teams were tied at one game apiece. But then came Game 3. The Mystics dominated, beating the Sun 94-81. Emma Meesseman’s 21-point performance and Kristi Toliver’s 10 assists sealed the deal. Jonquel fought hard, racking up 9 rebounds, but the game was out of Connecticut’s hands. Washington took the lead, and from there, they went on to win it all.

The Liberty is in a similar spot. Game 1 saw the Lynx pulling off a 95-93 win in overtime. Then, in Game 2, the Liberty fought back hard. Breanna Stewart, Jones, and Sabrina Ionescu were key. But now, after splitting Games 1 and 2, all eyes are on Game 3. And there might be some big challenges. 

New York Liberty’s game 3 challenges: Can they overcome?

The first one has to be Liberty’s history with Game 3s. They don’t have the best track record. For instance, the recent semifinal series against the Las Vegas Aces. They came out strong in Games 1 and 2, but their rhythm was disrupted in Game 3. 

The Aces’ defense ramped up, and the Liberty found themselves playing soft under the pressure. Although they won the series, they can’t afford to let that happen again. Especially not at Minnesota’s Target Center, where the Lynx have been rock solid this season with a 16-4 home record.​

Here comes the next trouble as the series now shifts to Minnesota. Although the New York Liberty’s road game record is also strong (17-3), matching Minnesota’s on their home court will be tough. The Target Center crowd is intense, and playing in front of that kind of energy can easily shake an opponent’s confidence.

Moreover, the Lynx hold opponents under 40% shooting at home. They usually make 44.8% of their shots from the field, a mark 2.3 percentage points higher than what New York typically allows. For the Liberty to pull off a win, they’ll need to play aggressive basketball from start to finish. 

Now, we’ll have to see if the New Yorkers can break the cycle or if Jonquel’s theory might just become their nightmare. Will they rise to the occasion, or will Game 3 once again prove to be their undoing?