A room buzzing with anticipation, ping pong balls bouncing in a lottery machine, and the fate of NHL franchises hanging in the balance. That’s the scene set for the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery, an event that could reshape the future of struggling teams with one lucky draw. Scheduled for May 5 at NHL Network studios in Secaucus, New Jersey, the lottery will air on ESPN in the United States and on Sportsnet and TVA Sports in Canada, with the exact time still to be confirmed.

For fans, it’s a high-stakes moment where dreams of landing a generational talent like defenseman Matthew Schaefer are born. Let’s dive into what this event is all about, how it works, and who’s got the best shot at the top pick.

What’s the NHL Draft Lottery?

The hockey world is already buzzing. NHL reporter Mollie Walker tweeted, “NHL announces the draft lottery will be held on May 5. It’ll be broadcasted on ESPN, Sportsnet and TVA Sports, at a time to be announced later this week. #NYR have a 3% chance to receive this year’s first-overall pick if they decide to keep it ⬇️.”

The NHL Draft Lottery is the league’s way of sorting out the draft order for teams that miss the playoffs. It’s not just about handing out picks—it’s a dramatic process to determine the top two selections, with the rest of the first 16 spots locked in based on regular-season standings. The worse your team performed, the better your odds of snagging a high pick.

But there’s a catch: not every team can leap to No. 1, and the system is designed to balance fairness with a sprinkle of chaos.

Meanwhile, a Boston Bruins reporter noted, “The NHL announces that the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery will be held on Monday, May 5. Bruins have an 8.5% chance of moving up to the No. 1 pick, and an 8.6% chance of moving up to No. 2, per @tankathon.”

This year, the lottery is all about Matthew Schaefer, a 6-foot-2, 183-pound defenseman from the Erie Otters in the Ontario Hockey League. Ranked No. 1 among North American skaters by NHL Central Scouting, Schaefer’s skating, competitiveness, and hockey sense have drawn comparisons to Columbus Blue Jackets star Zach Werenski. Despite a broken collarbone sidelining him after a standout performance at the world juniors, his stock remains sky-high. If your team lands the top pick, Schaefer’s likely the prize.

How Does the NHL Draft Lottery Work?

The NHL Draft Lottery is part math, part luck, and all suspense. Here’s the breakdown: 14 ping pong balls, numbered 1 to 14, go into a lottery machine. Four balls are drawn to create a four-digit combination, and the team assigned that combination wins the No. 1 pick. The process repeats for the No. 2 pick. The remaining 14 spots in the top 16 are then set in reverse order of the regular-season standings.

In the NHL Draft Lottery, Teams are assigned combinations based on their finish, totaling 1,001 combinations. The San Jose Sharks, who finished dead last, get the most combinations, giving them a 25.5% chance at No. 1. The Chicago Blackhawks, second-worst, have a 13.5% shot. The odds taper off from there, with the New York Rangers and New York Islanders sitting at a modest 3% each.

But here’s where it gets spicy: a team can only jump up 10 spots max. That means only the 11 worst teams can win the No. 1 pick, and the top 12 can vie for No. 2. For example, if the Detroit Red Wings, slotted 12th, win the first draw, they’d leap to No. 2, and the Sharks would still get No. 1. The lottery’s also got a rule to prevent teams from hogging the luck: starting in 2022, no team can move up via the lottery more than twice in five years. So far, no one’s hit that limit.

Who’s Got the Best Odds in NHL Draft Lottery 2025?

The lottery odds were finalized after the 2024-25 regular season wrapped up, and it’s déjà vu at the top. For the second year in a row, the San Jose Sharks and Chicago Blackhawks are the teams to beat. The Sharks, with their 25.5% chance, are dreaming of back-to-back No. 1 picks—a feat last pulled off by the Edmonton Oilers from 2010-12. They struck gold last year with Macklin Celebrini, their first-ever top pick. Meanwhile, the Blackhawks, at 135%, are no strangers to lottery magic. They jumped to No. 1 in 2023 for Connor Bedard and held No. 2 last year for Artyom Levshunov. A third straight top-two pick? It’s not out of the question.

Here’s the full rundown of the 11 teams with a shot at No. 1:

• San Jose Sharks: 25.5%

• Chicago Blackhawks: 13.5%

• Nashville Predators: 11.5%

• Philadelphia Flyers: 9.5%

• Boston Bruins: 8.5%

• Seattle Kraken: 7.5%

• Buffalo Sabres: 6.5%

• Anaheim Ducks: 6%

• Pittsburgh Penguins: 5%

• New York Islanders: 3.5%

• New York Rangers: 3%

Teams slotted 12th to 16th—Detroit, Columbus, Utah, Vancouver, and Calgary—can’t reach No. 1 but could climb for No. 2 or lower. Detroit, for instance, has a 5.1% chance to jump to No. 2.

Fun fact: Calgary’s pick is set to go to the Montreal Canadiens, so Habs fans will be watching closely.

Why Schaefer’s the Talk of the Town

Matthew Schaefer’s name is on everyone’s lips, and for good reason. At 17, he racked up seven goals, 15 assists, and a plus-21 rating in just 17 games with Erie before his injury. Scouts love his all-around game, and he’s poised to be the first defenseman taken No. 1 since Owen Power in 2022. If Schaefer goes first, he’ll be the kind of player teams build around for a decade.

The NHL Draft Lottery isn’t just about ping pong balls—it’s about hope. For teams like the Sharks and Blackhawks, it’s a chance to accelerate a rebuild. For fans, it’s a night of nail-biting drama, where one draw can change everything. Will San Jose make history with another No. 1? Will Chicago keep their lottery hot streak alive? Or will an underdog like the Bruins or Rangers steal the show? Tune in on May 5 to find out.