The NCAA Final Four showdowns are over. The semifinal matches at KFC Yum! Center between Louisville vs. Pitt and Nebraska vs. Penn State was incredibly competitive, with a pattern forming during both clashes. Pittsburgh and Nebraska took early leads in their respective matches, only to crumble under the rallying pressure of their opponents.

So now, the hosts, Louisville, who handed Pitt a 3-1 defeat, and Penn State, who reverse swept Nebraska, are set to clash on Sunday, December 22, at 3:00 PM ET. However, going by the numbers, it would seem an unfavorable outcome awaits the hosts in the finals. So how do the two finalists stack up?

Louisville vs. Penn State: A history of one-sided dominance?

Although their first clash took place in 1982, historically the Cardinals and the Nittany Lions haven’t faced off too many times. As of 2024, the two sides have faced off only 10 times. However, the Lions have come out on top eight times in those 10 clashes. In these eight victories, the Nittany Lions have also proven that they have the home advantage.

While the Louisville Cardinals have won two matches at home, they failed to defeat Penn State during away games or on neutral ground. However, do these numbers tell the whole story? You could argue that they don’t, especially for the rising Louisville side under coach Dani Busboom Kelly. That’s because the two most recent matches between the two sides paint a different picture.

While the Lions got the better of the Cards seven times out of the eight times they faced off, things have been different under Coach Kelly. Under the former Nebraska assistant coach-turned-Cardinals head coach, Louisville has lost one and won the other. During their most recent clash on September 3, 2024, Penn State swept the Cardinals, handing them a 3-0 defeat.

However, in their sole 2023 clash, the Cardinals did the same to Penn State, defeating them 3-0. Louisville’s star players, such as Anna DeBeer and Elena Scott, put an end to the Lions’ six-match win streak against the Cardinals. However, despite these revelations, the cards are stacked against the Louisville Cardinals.

The pressure has mounted on Louisville

Despite being the host, who undoubtedly enjoys the home-court advantage, Anna DeBeer’s injury has complicated things for the Cardinals. During the set against Pitt, Anna DeBeer once again proved her value as she gave a clutch performance to tie the set 23-23. DeBeer produced the money, but the momentum shifted toward the Cardinals as they won the set 29-27.

While the Cardinals rode the momentum to win the fourth set as well, they had lost Anna DeBeer. The experienced outside hitter suffered an injury in her right leg, putting her out of action. Unfortunately, there have been no further updates on the severity of DeBeer’s injury. This only adds to the pressure Coach Kelly had already talked about ahead of the Championship’s final rounds.

“I do think there’s some added pressure, especially for our hometown players, where you know they’ve been hearing for six months, like hometown heroes and how amazing would it be to finish this season and at home,” explained Coach Kelly during a press conference. This is only the second time that the Cardinals have made it to the NCAA finals in their program’s history.

However, alongside home-court advantage also comes the pressure to perform in front of the home crowd. Yet, after analyzing the recent results between Penn State and Louisville, it may be safe to assume that the 2024 NCAA finals will be a much closer affair than the stat sheet may suggest, especially if Anna DeBeer returns to action.