The rat is obviously out of the box; this TikTok ban drama has got everyone hooked; everyone’s chit-chatting, from users to influencers, and for college athletes, it’s not just about losing their favorite app—it’s about losing a key piece of their income and fame that comes with it. With the surge of the NIL deals, TikTok became such an essential marketing tool for student-athletes. But now, after the U.S. government pushed for its ban due to national security concerns, everyone’s left wondering about it, so what happens next?

Some of the biggest college sports stars, like the Cavinders, Olivia Dunne, Emily Cole, Coco Gauff, and many more, have used the platform to score million-dollar brand deals. Not just the big ones—TikTok has even allowed opportunities for lesser-known athletes. But if the platform suddenly disappears from the U.S., their exposure and earning potential could take a gigantic hit, like the Titanic.

How TikTok built NIL empires

Over the past few years, TikTok has been a game-changer for college athletes looking to monetize their brands. According to Opendorse, student-athletes in sports like women’s volleyball and gymnastics are closing up to 90 NIL deals annually—many of which are heavily reliant on TikTok. It is unlike any traditional endorsement channel, which doesn’t require any initial investment and is accessible to all. The potential TikTok ban that took place on 19th Jan 2025 could shake up the entire NIL market, turning it upside down, as it is projected to hit $1.67 billion by 2024-25, damn. Most of the NIL stars have expressed themselves on the ban.

The track alum of Duke, Emily Cole, owning more than 325,000 TikTok followers, expressed the depth of the situation: “The amount of hours and time me and my creator friends and these small businesses have put into growing their business and having the majority of your followers be coming from that platform, the idea of it just disappearing in a day is really daunting.“

Sharing similar concerns, Leah Clapper, a gymnast at the University of Florida and an entrepreneur, added her views. Upon being asked how she feels about the ban, she added, “All of these creators that are making their livelihoods from TikTok are kind of left in the dust, if they haven’t built up followings on other platforms…” expressing, “That means, I could lose a huge portion of my audience. Approx half of my NIL revenue comes from TikTok.” That is what is scaring everyone in the mix. 

Whereas major NIL stars like LSU’s gymnastic icon #4 Olivia Dunne, who has more than 8 million followers on TikTok with 463.4 million likes, were earlier surprised and now seem unbothered, said in one of her posts, “Me when my diploma finally comes 3 days before the tik tok ban. getting my LinkedIn ready #foryou #tiktokban #riptiktok #graduation.” Dunne has one of the highest NIL valuations, which is $4.2 million. Of course, the ban is going to deeply hamper the NIL rankings, but Dunne has made her very own personal brand and is up for the game. 

Moreover, Miami Basketball social media stars, the Cavinder twins (with over 4.5 million followers on TikTok), also seem pretty chill about it; upon being asked, the response was, “TikTok’s hot, so everyone’s trying to get advantage of it. If it goes, it goes, I think that there will be another app or something.” As per O3 in 2024, Haley Cavinder stood at $889,000, and Hanna Cavinder at $863,000 NIL valuation, which is crazy! They are waiting to see what’s more.

What about the brand owners?

“When you think about it through the lens of college athletics, that’s where it has the biggest impact because most college athletes don’t have massive followings, but yet they’re able to get real, tangible exposure, which is obviously valuable to the brand community. And so if you take that away, that algorithm, it’s not as good on other platforms,” said the CEO of SponsorUnited, Bob Lynch, pointing out just how important it is.

Also, brands have understood the application’s power and are now targeting as many college teams as possible to skyrocket their reach. Big companies out there, like Adidas, have influencer or affiliate marketing, so by partnering with thousands of student-athletes at once, they create effects that traditional media just can’t match.

With TikTok driving 40% of social media engagement for high school and college athletes—a 73% increase from last year alone—losing the platform could mean losing access to an entire generation of sports fans. For brands, this shift could force them to rethink their entire NIL strategy.

The emotional and financial impact of a ban

The ban is far more than just about money; it carries a big chunk of mental well-being. Many athletes are speaking up, including tennis icon Coco Gauff, who looked at TikTok’s way, not just for business but for connecting and expressing. Gauff shared an incident when a TikTok comment completely altered her mindset, and that too, right before a major match, helping her enter the moment without pressure.

Coco said, “Somebody commented on my TikTok and they were like: ‘You’ve won in life, literally and figuratively, and there’s no point in piling pressure on yourself on a victory lap.’” Feeling that, she added, “My perspective has changed a lot over seven days… I enjoyed it today and obviously, it was straightforward, but even if it was tighter, these are the moments you live for.” This says a lot about how the platform provides more than just financial opportunities; it offers a space for motivation.

But that’s not all; social media also comes with its set of challenges. Studies show excessive social media use = bad sleep quality and performance, with platforms like TikTok contributing to anxiety and burnout. Nevertheless, some athletes thrive in the spotlight, while others struggle with the constant pressure and negative commentary. At the same time, the NCAA and lawmakers are pushing the ban to amend and bring more structure to the NIL space. NCAA President Charlie Baker has been very expressive about the error in the current system, pointing towards the need for national guidelines to protect athletes from bad deals and unmet promises. The good thing is that Congress is still reviewing new regulations, and things could possibly turn.

All in all, if TikTok remains or vanishes, the NIL scene is undoubtedly changing, and that too, at a crazy pace. Everyone, from brands to athletes, will have to get used to new platforms, along with strategies to keep up with it. For now, all eyes are fixated on Washington—and the sand clock keeps lurking above the ban.