The top end of the NHL Eastern Conference may be locked in, but it’s the battle at the middle that’s stealing the spotlight. With just weeks left before the playoffs kick off, the race for the final wild-card spot is messier—and tighter—than anyone expected. Five teams. One spot. And almost no separation. Welcome to the chaos that is the final push toward the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Right now, the Montreal Canadiens hold the eighth and final playoff spot with 75 points. But calling their grip on that spot “firm” would be generous. Just one point behind them sit both New York teams—the Islanders and the Rangers—with the Columbus Blue Jackets nipping at their heels with 73 points. the Detroit Red Wings aren’t too far back either with 72.

The problem? Nobody seems ready to take charge. In their last ten NHL games, the Canadiens have gone 3-3-4—about as average as it gets. The Islanders are doing marginally better at 4-3-3, while the Rangers have slipped hard with a 3-6-1 record. Columbus and Detroit? Both are stuck in full-on skids, combining for just five wins between them in their last ten outings.

It’s not just what’s happening now—it’s what could happen next that matters most. There are key matchups looming, including two massive ones for the Islanders: an April 10th clash with the Rangers, and an April 17th showdown against the Blue Jackets to end the season. With how close things are, those games might decide everything, especially the final-day showdown.

As of now, NHL playoff projections from Stathletes give Montreal the edge with a 43.7% shot at punching their postseason ticket. Behind them, Columbus sits at 18.5%, with the Islanders and Rangers nearly dead even at just over 18%. Detroit, despite hanging around, has slipped to just a 4.5% chance.

Momentum, Matchups, and Mentality: The Real X-Factors in the NHL

Beyond the numbers, playoff experience and leadership could play a massive role. The Rangers boast the most postseason-savvy lineup of the group, but they’ve been plagued by inconsistency and a couple of untimely injuries. The Habs, while younger and not as flashy, have quietly hung in there all year and continue to grind out points.

The Islanders are perhaps the most consistent of the five teams. They don’t engage in anything extravagant, but they are tough opponents and can secure gritty victories when it counts. Columbus, on the other hand, seem to be collapsing at the worst possible time, while Detroit’s youth and energy might not be enough to overcome their defensive lapses and inexperience in tight situations.

Goaltending may be the deciding factor in the upcoming games. Samuel Montembeault has shown moments of brilliance for Montreal, while Igor Shesterkin, even when not at his best, is still a game-changer in the Rangers’ net. In contrast, Columbus and Detroit have struggled with consistency in goal, which could prove to be their downfall, especially as every goal feels like a potential dagger.

Recent performances provide insight into each team’s current state. The Canadiens recently secured a significant win over the Penguins that boosted their playoff chances, while Detroit’s last-second collapse against Ottawa may haunt them for days. The Islanders and Rangers are facing their own make-or-break moments, and one bad bounce could change everything.

Five teams are vying for one playoff spot, leaving no room for error. The Eastern Conference wild-card race is shaping up to be a nail-biter, with no team pulling ahead. If the Canadiens can maintain their consistency, they might secure their position. However, don’t count out the Islanders or Rangers; both possess the firepower to make a late push. Columbus and Detroit still have a chance too, but time is running out.

With only a handful of games remaining, every single point is crucial. The race for the eighth playoff spot isn’t just about statistics—it’s about determination, timing, and perhaps a bit of luck. When the dust settles, one team will head to the NHL playoffs, while the others will be left wondering what went wrong.