Spring has sprung, and in the NHL that means playoff season is finally upon us. “I can’t wait for the crowd, the noise, the energy in the building. I can’t wait to take that all away from them,” said PK Subban in 2014, before game 7 against the Bruins. Because that’s really what the spirit of playoff hockey is all about. But in this short window before the action starts for real, all we can do is speculate and then speculate some more about which teams will advance to the second round. But sometimes, as Paul Bissonnette has recently found, it’s hard to make a prediction you can confidently stand by, despite all the evidence from the regular season. Especially when the teams in question are two juggernauts in the form of the Florida Panthers and the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Less than a week ago, Bissonnette had made a bold statement on TNT regarding his playoff predictions. “I think Florida getting all their guys back healthy, especially after I believe game 2, Ekblad comes back as well…sleeping in a hyperbaric chamber, feeling great about himself,” joked Bissonnette. “The rest of that lineup? I think that that team can beat Tampa Bay, yes.” He further doubled down on his opinion by adding that he “would put money on it.”

However, on an episode of the Spittin’ Chiclets podcast that was just released today, Bissonnette completely backtracked on his word just days later. “I said obviously Florida is going to win this series a couple nights ago on TNT… but I’m torn. This is going to be an all-out war… As much as I’ve been sold on Florida, I think I’m going to flip it. I think that the Tampa Bay Lightning are going to win this series in seven games.” Bissonnette stated in his unique style on the podcast.

Despite the fact that Matthew Tkachuk said his injury is “trending well” suggesting he could be back in time for round 1, Bissonnette argued that Tampa Bay was an excellent team but heavily underrated. He added that the return of Ryan McDonough, in particular, added to Tampa’s defensive stability, and with his prediction that it was going to be a low-scoring, defense-oriented series, the about-turn made more sense.

He seemed to base his new conclusion on Florida’s slowing momentum, with so many players off on injury or suspension, and Tampa essentially flying under the radar and quietly racking up the wins without the fanfare of, say, the Washington Capitals. “I’m going to direct my attention towards John Cooper and the Tampa Bay Lightning.” Bissonnette added, praising Tampa Bay players like Andrei Vasilevskiy and Brandon Hagel. Still, you can’t discount the reigning champions, though injuries have been wreaking havoc on their roster.

The Florida Panthers have taken a blow after all their injuries and suspensions

So while Bissonnette’s flip-flop had to do with a realization of Tampa Bay’s defensive strengths and understated approach to winning, it may also have to do with the laundry list of injuries Florida has had to deal with as the playoffs draw closer. Though the Florida Panthers are the defending champions, it seems like maybe this year they played too hard and fast too early in the day, because they currently have five of their star players recovering from injuries.

During the season, Matthew Tkachuk, Aaron Ekblad, Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, and Anton Lundell have all been dealing with injuries + one suspension, with Tkachuk having missed 25 games and Ekblad having missed 18. Oh, and don’t forget that Ekblad still has two games left to serve on his suspension, so he can only even begin to come into the fold for Game 3. To come back to the new team dynamic that has formed in their absence will undoubtedly be a tough mountain to climb, for starters, and additionally, the players won’t know the full scale of their injury or recovery till they are actually battling it out on the ice, so for the time being the Panthers are heading into the playoffs with five wildcards, figuratively.

On the other hand, and in stark contrast to Florida, Tampa is looking really good. Their key players are all fit and raring to go, while only 2 players are currently out injured (Darren Raddysh and Oliver Bjorkstrand). And while Florida’s new acquisitions—Seth Jones and Brad Marchand—haven’t fully adapted, the Lightning’s new additions this season have been faring much better. In particular, Jake Guentzel, acquired during the off-season, has been a standout this season and is someone you can count on during the playoffs with his career 38 goals and 67 points in 69 playoff games. And with veterans like Nikita Kucherov and Andrei Vasilevskiy on their side, the Lightning are currently looking like the stronger team.

The safer bet is definitely the Lightning, but we don’t know what’s been happening during the Florida Panthers’ practice sessions, and if, perchance, the injuries are relics of the long-forgotten past, Bissonnette may be changing his tune once again. After all, many of Florida’s pros have something to prove, including Brad Marchand.