Well, clearly Matthew Tkachuk made it through the morning skate alright yesterday, because he was fire on the ice in the evening, scoring two goals for Florida! And regardless of how Tkachuk got cleared for his injury, the Panthers are probably glad he did, because he played a pivotal role in staging a sweeping victory over the projected champions, Tampa Bay Lightning, with a 4-goal margin, leaving analysts, fans and betting booths in total shock, trying to figure out what just happened.

This is exactly what is covered in an episode of 32 Thoughts with Kyle Bukauskas and Elliotte Friedman, where they break down all the playoff games so far. When they come to Florida, Kyle says, “Florida, if we’re talking about flipping switches, it seemed like they were quite ready for this moment and being able to flip that switch.” Clearly implying the conversation that surrounded the buildup to this game. The bets were literally not on Florida, with a reputed betting site predicting a 5-2 win for Tampa Bay. So when Kyle was talking about flipping a switch, it wasn’t just a figure of speech. Imagine the sheer joy Florida believers (especially betting believers) are feeling now.

Elliotte then went on to comment on Florida’s ‘swagger,’ saying, “Yeah, you looked at it and all of a sudden you see Bennet Tkachuk and Marchand all in the same lineup, and you’re like, ‘These guys are really excited to play with each other.’ You know what you really saw was the swagger. Like, the game was in Tampa, and you see the way Tkachuk was celebrating the goals, like, Florida likes this challenge.” It’s true, the second Bennet slipped that first puck in past Vasilevsky (whose save average when compared to Bobrovsky was one of the many reasons stats predicted a Tampa win), they seemed to have found the sweet spot on the Tampa ice and the rest was all just, well, super smooth.

It may not stay that way, though, with Elliotte predicting Tampa’s pushback, saying, “This series is far from over; you know Tampa’s going to push back.” The question now remains, in what way? How does Tampa plan on combatting a now super confident Florida who’s got the terrifying threesome of Marchand, Bennet and Matthew Tkachuk leading the line?

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning didn’t live up to the predictions in round one against the Florida Panthers

According to Elliotte, it was Tampa’s challenge that put them in a bad position that they were ultimately unable to recover from. “I thought Tampa had a really bad challenge that cost them; I could not believe they challenged that 3-1 goal. That was a bad challenge; they shouldn’t have done it, and then Tkachuk scores on the power play 14 seconds later and it’s 4-1. It’s going to be a different game, game 2, but those two teams are not finished beating up each other, that’s for sure.” Perhaps Tampa challenged out of desperation, hoping to get back to a beatable score, but the power play that followed certainly didn’t help. Then again, who knew Matthew Tkachuk wouldn’t only be back but be back like this!

Florida had a remarkable shooting percentage that Elliotte also commented on in the podcast, saying, “I’ll tell you one thing: they got six goals on 16 shots; that’s a 37.5 shooting percentage. As far as I know, the only team that’s ever shot better in a playoff game was Pittsburgh, was 5 of 12, 42%, in game 1 of the 2017 final against Nashville. I don’t think you’re going to see Florida shooting 38% again.” So whatever Tampa does tomorrow is going to have to rival that exemplary stat! However, Florida’s performance yesterday hasn’t yet completely tipped the betting chances in their direction; most sites still predict a 5-3 win in Tampa’s favor. Either way, the Florida betting believers chances are not looking too bad if they can spare some side cash for another go.