History is right there, staring Alex Ovechkin in the face. The Washington Capitals legend is chasing Wayne Gretzky’s all-time NHL goal record, and the countdown is officially on. But if the numbers tell us anything, it’s that this isn’t going to be a walk in the park. Alex Ovechkin still has serious work to do, and the data from last season proves it.

Tarik El-Bashir, Capitals Insider for Monumental Sports Network and a correspondent for NHL Network, broke it down on X (formerly Twitter) on February 21st: “The #Caps return to action tomorrow at PIT. Including that game, they’ve got 27 contests remaining. Alex Ovechkin needs 16 goals to break Wayne Gretzky’s record. A year ago, Ovechkin potted 15 in his final 27 games. So, yeah. #ALLCAPS”

Now, let’s dig into the numbers. As of February 21, 2025, Alex Ovechkin has 832 career goals, sitting 16 short of Gretzky’s legendary 894. The problem? The numbers from last season say he was only able to put up 15 goals in the final 27 games. That means he’s got to step it up beyond his own recent pace to break the record this season. The Capitals have 27 games left, and Ovechkin has to deliver more than what he did in the exact same stretch last year—which wasn’t enough to hit the mark.

And here’s where the pressure kicks in. At 39 years old, Ovechkin isn’t just battling history—he’s up against time itself. Last season, he had a shooting percentage of 11.5%, a slight dip from his career average of 12.8%, and that could make all the difference in these final games. Plus, the Capitals’ overall offensive production is not what it used to be, ranking 24th in goals per game this season (2.73), meaning he’s got to create his own magic more often than before.

The road ahead for Alex Ovechkin

Breaking Gretzky’s record isn’t just about passing a number—it’s about doing what no one else has even come close to. Ovechkin’s 16-goal chase puts him in a must-score situation almost every other game. His season-high scoring stretch this year? Five goals in five games between January 10-18, proving he can still go on runs. But can he sustain it over two months?

“I don’t think it’s going to be that close,” said one fan, referencing Ovechkin’s ability to chase down the record. Another added, “The Capitals’ offense isn’t what it used to be, but Ovechkin has proven time and again that he can create his own opportunities.”

And let’s not forget about health. The grind of the season adds up, and while Ovechkin is known for his durability, he did miss time in December 2024 due to a lower-body injury. If he stays fully healthy, the chances improve. If not, this chase could spill over into next season, something he’d surely rather avoid.

Alex Ovechkin is one of the greatest goal-scorers the NHL has ever seen. But this isn’t just a legacy moment—it’s a test. A test of whether he can outlast history, time, and his own numbers to make it happen this season. If he wants Gretzky’s record, he’s going to have to outdo himself. What do you think, let us know in comments!