Just over 24 hours have passed since Alex Ovechkin broke Wayne Gretzky‘s all-time goal record. A day has passed, but the excitement continues to bubble. After all, the hockey community just witnessed history being made; it’s not something you move past so quickly. But while the focus is all on Ovechkin—and rightly so—a subsection of the hockey world has already begun to speculate about who might beat Ovechkin‘s record! In fact, Auston Matthews is one of the first players who’s commented on this line of questioning.

While it’s certainly an interesting question to think about, it arguably is quite soon to seriously discuss it in any capacity. After all, the dust hasn’t even begun settling from Ovechkin’s powerful wrister that whizzed past Ilya Sorokin to seal the deal. But of course, the conversation is quick to move to the next shiny thing, and well, within the hockey community, the question of who will break the record next seems to be it.

A multitude of fans directed their attention towards several players, including David Pastrnak, Leon Draisaitl, and Auston Matthews, among others. Nevertheless, the captain of the Toronto Maple Leafs was actually asked about the prospect, though he was swift to downplay the idea. On X, Mark Masters of TSN posted a short snippet of the conversation, where his teammate Matthew Knies floated the idea of Matthews breaking the record.

But Matthews was having none of it. “And, you know, I don’t even think I should be in that conversation.” He added, “I mean, this guy just broke the record. I’m so far away from that, and I don’t think that should be a focus on myself. I mean, it should be on Ovi, and rightfully so. It should be on Ovi, and what he’s been able to accomplish in his career, and obviously this record being one of them.”

But while Matthews was unwilling to contend with the idea, it doesn’t look like these conversations will die down. Rather, they will only begin to pick up in the coming weeks and months. And with Auston Matthews being the closest contender, well could he really be the one?

Assessing Auston Matthews’ chances at breaking Alex Ovechkin’s record

The Leafs captain has netted 398 goals over the course of 623 games, which translates to an average of about 0.64 goals per game. By contrast, Ovechkin needed 634 games to score 400 goals, and is averaging 0.60 goals per game. Matthews does have a subtle advantage and is on a similar, if not slightly more favorable, path compared to Ovechkin at a similar point in their careers.

Furthermore, Matthews’ latest performances certainly lend credence to the idea. During the 2023-24 season, he netted 69 goals, breaking Ovechkin’s record of 65 in the 2007-08 season, for the highest number of goals scored in one season by an active player in the salary cap era. He also has two 60 goal seasons under his belt while Ovechkin only has the one. These accomplishments underscore Matthews’ reliable scoring prowess and perhaps even seriously put him in the conversation for record-breaking.

However, what makes Ovechkin great is his capacity to consistently perform, even though he’s past his true prime. It isn’t easy to keep up that kind of production throughout your career, so while it may seem like there are several active contenders for the record, the landscape could look different once these players are older. Matthews’ current pace shows great potential, but sustaining it over the course of his career? That will be where the difference lies.

But let’s not forget that Alex Ovechkin is not going to retire tomorrow. 895 is the number to beat right now, but it won’t be for long. 900 is as good as guaranteed at this point, but what about 1000? If Ovechkin continues at this rate, the prospect of the 1000 goal mark seems near inevitable. What if Matthews is traded? Or his teammates are? What about injuries?

They’re all important factors to consider, but ultimately, as Matthews himself said, what’s important at this moment is enjoying Alex Ovechkin’s record, not jumping to who might break it in the future. “Pretty cool,” said Matthews. “It was pretty cool to witness that record being broken.” That it was, Auston Matthews, that it was.