Will Kentucky Derby Take Place Under Heavy Rainstorms? All About Weather Forecast for Horse Racing’s Biggest Event

“I don’t know how anything could be bigger than the Kentucky Derby. If you hear of something, let me know…” Well, J. Paul Reddam can speak from experience after all. Being the owner of 2 Kentucky Derby-winning horses makes him the ‘crème de la crème’ when it comes to thoroughbred horse racing.

However, the appeal of the Derby is not restricted to just the participants. Otherwise, we wouldn’t see 150,000-odd spectators every year flocking to the Churchill Downs to revel in the glorious spectacle. We are sure many of you have got your tickets neatly tucked away and ready for May 3. But have you considered whether you need shades or an umbrella for the Derby Day? That’s right. Windy or rainy or scorching sunshine, you never know what you will get on Kentucky Derby Day. Well, we can give you an overview of what the likely forecast is for the big day.

What’s the forecast for Kentucky Derby Day?

The ‘Run To The Roses,’ as the Derby is also famously called, always takes place on the first Saturday of May. This means on May 3 this year, we are going to see some of the best horses in the USA line up at the starting gates of the Churchill Downs racecourse in Louisville, Kentucky. The race is scheduled at 6:57 pm ET, as per the official Kentucky Derby website.

And as for the weather, the forecast is that there are chances of scattered thunderstorms during the evening. The sources say that the rain will intensify as the night deepens, and the experts have evaluated a 60% chance of rain during the nighttime. However, the daytime forecast is that it will just be a partly cloudy day with the temperature hovering around 80°F. Moreover, the wind speed is expected to be around 10-15 mph. This means the buildup to the race will be pleasant and sunny if the forecasts are accurate.

Maybe they will keep an umbrella handy in case the rain comes during the later part of the day. Another key piece of information will probably be important for the attendees to make a decision. It is that the week leading up to the Kentucky Derby is expected to bring rainfall to Louisville. There are forecasts of rain on April 25, April 26, April 28, April 29, April 30, and May 1.

So, it wouldn’t be that bad an idea to keep an umbrella with you, would it? Coming to the super classy Kentucky Derby only to see the rain ruin your chic outfit would be a mood dampener. So, plan accordingly and keep an eye on the weather channel before making final plans for the big day.

But this is just the preparation if you are a spectator at Churchill Downs. What about the horses? Or the jockeys and the trainers? For them, the weather will impact them in more ways than one

What will be in store, weather-wise, for the horses and the trainers at the Kentucky Derby?

With rain forecast on most of the days before the Kentucky Derby, the jockeys may be planning for a wet fast or a sloppy dirt track on May 3. Well, the Kentucky Oaks race on May 2 has a high probability of seeing a sloppy dirt track. This is when enough rain has soaked the base, and the track will have traction. A sloppy or muddy track will make the races slightly longer. Sports betting analyst Jeff Clark explained to Fox Weather, “When it rains, obviously, the tracks become sloppier and then the sloppier the tracks tend to be, slower race times.”

And it also affects the performance of horses. Trainer Larry Rivelli described how not all horses can adjust to a wet track accordingly: “Some people get through it better than others, and it’s the same with horses. It’s a little bit slippery, or more slippery, but it takes a special horse to run in the mud.” These horses have unique personalities, and they react differently. Trainer Bret Calhoun shared with Courier Journal in May 2024, “One of the big factors will be the kickback, the spray of the water and mud. You may have a horse that doesn’t like it — and most of them don’t like it.” It even creates an issue for the jockeys, with the mud fogging up and kicking up into the goggles.

So, if it is a wet, muddy track with a spongy top this year, expect a very uncomfortable race for the horses. “A deeper track will pull on soft tissue so their stifle, which is like our knee, can get pain, and it can radiate into the low back,” equine therapist Dianne Volz said. And in such a situation, as Larry Rivelli said, maybe the special thoroughbred who thrives in these challenging conditions will become the 2025 Kentucky Derby Champion.

However, it’s the timing of the rain that will dictate the track the jockeys and the horses will encounter. “If it stops raining, it’ll be dried out by the afternoon,” equine therapist Dianne Volz said. “Churchill is a safe surface when it gets rain, normally. It must be the makeup of the dirt, because it drains well.” So, unless there’s rain just before the race, expect a dry, fast dirt track and a race that will be worthy of the moniker ‘the Fastest Two Minutes in Sports.’

With such caveats, you must be wondering what if the weather becomes so severe that the Kentucky Derby has to be cancelled. Well, then let us tell you the history of this special race that will leave you speechless.

How has the Kentucky Derby held up against the weather in previous years?

In short, since the first Kentucky Derby in 1875, the legendary race has continued uninterrupted for the last 150 years. And this year, it is the 151st edition. The legacy of this race in the USA is unparalleled. Be it rain, snow, or sunshine, this race takes place, standing as a symbol of the American spirit. Out of 150 Kentucky Derby days, 72 days had seen rain at some point during the day. But that didn’t stop us from having a Kentucky Derby winner.

The hottest temperature that was recorded on a Kentucky Derby day was 94°F in 1959. Tommy Lee was the winner that day. Gallahadion and Iron Liege ran home in the first place in 1940 and 1957, respectively. What’s special about these 2 instances? These years saw the coldest temperature ever recorded in the Kentucky Derby. There have been instances of sleet falling on Kentucky Derby day, too. On May 6th, 1989, sleet fell between 1:01 pm and 1:05 pm on Derby Day. And later, Churchill Downs saw Sunday Silence win the Derby.

The Run to the Roses stops for no one and nothing. Not even when it rained 3.15” on the Derby Day in 2018. The track endured 2.85” of rainfall between 1 and 7 pm. And although it recorded the slowest winning time in the last 13 years, it still had a victor. Justify won the race and would also go on to win the Triple Crown that year. Only the special ones win a wet Kentucky Derby, and Justify is the proof.

So, get ready for it. Less than 2 weeks to go now. The only thing the weather will decide is the strategy of the race and how you choose to be a part of this historic legacy.