Every Kentucky Derby season introduces new contenders, but few carry a pedigree as prestigious as American Promise. Following a commanding victory in the Virginia Derby, this D. Wayne Lukas-trained colt has secured his place in the Kentucky Derby conversation. However, what makes his story even more compelling is his unexpected link to Bob Baffert—a name synonymous with Derby success.

The connection? American Promise is the son of Justify, the 2018 Triple Crown winner, trained by Baffert himself. While American Promise isn’t housed in Baffert’s stable, his lineage raises intriguing questions. Well, for instance, does he inherit the same late-blooming dominance that made Justify a legend? With impressive performances in early 2025, American Promise is emerging as a potential wildcard in the Derby field—greatness might just run in the family.

The Justify-Baffert bloodline and American Promise’s road to the Derby

American Promise comes from a royal bloodline. His sire, Justify, is one of the most dominant racehorses in modern history, famously winning the Triple Crown without racing as a two-year-old. This rare feat shattered traditional wisdom that Derby winners need early seasoning, setting Justify apart as a generational talent.

D. Wayne Lukas, an esteemed trainer in his own right, likened American Promise to a “gangly teenager” before his recent breakout. Lukas acknowledged that his physical gifts were still coming together. That all changed when he put together a stunning eight-length victory in the Virginia Derby. That signaled his rapid development at just the right time.

American Promise’s record is one of steady improvement. After an unremarkable two-year-old campaign, he has turned a corner in 2025, showing increased stamina and speed. His 9 career starts have resulted in 2 wins, 1 second, and 1 third, with career earnings totaling $444,874. More importantly, his Virginia Derby triumph secured 50 Kentucky Derby points. This boosted his total to 55—enough to secure a spot at Churchill Downs if his connections choose to push forward.

The question now is whether American Promise can continue his meteoric rise or if the Derby field, stacked with elite competition, will prove too much too soon. With Justify’s bloodline behind him and Lukas’ legendary training expertise, there’s reason to believe he’s just getting started.

Breaking down American Promise’s key wins and racing profile

American Promise’s Virginia Derby win was a defining moment. Facing a competitive field, he set a swift pace before drawing away effortlessly. He crossed the finish line in 1:46.41 over 1 1/8 miles on dirt. With jockey Nik Juarez guiding him, the colt left contenders like Render Judgment and Omaha Omaha in his wake. Here, he solidified himself as a legitimate Derby threat.

Beyond the Virginia Derby, his earlier performances hinted at his potential. In December 2024, he broke his maiden at Oaklawn Park, winning a 1 1/16-mile race on a muddy track. This was a sign that he could handle less-than-ideal conditions. Though he struggled in graded stakes races like the Southwest Stakes (7th place) and Risen Star (5th place), his improvement at longer distances suggests he’s developing into a true Derby horse.

Jockey Nik Juarez has been instrumental in American Promise’s progress. Juarez knows exactly when to push him forward and when to let him settle into his stride. The combination of Juarez’s skill and Lukas’s experience in preparing Derby contenders could be the key to unlocking American Promise’s full potential.

As for his racing style, American Promise has demonstrated versatility, adapting to different pace scenarios. He performs better at longer distances, which is an advantage in the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby, where endurance often distinguishes the winners from the rest of the field.

With the Derby approaching, the most pressing question is: Is American Promise ready to compete in the biggest race of his life, or is he still lagging behind the country’s top three-year-old’s?

D. Wayne Lukas is upbeat about the development of the colt. And rightfully so, if his recent performance is anything to gauge from, then he might enter the Derby as one of the hottest horses in the race. Even though he has not yet tried himself among the best within the division, his recent performances suggest that he is among the horses to watch.

With his pedigree and recent form, American Promise is shaping up to be one of the most fascinating Derby dark horses of recent times. Whether or not he is able to rise to the occasion at hand, his journey will be worth watching. What are your thoughts on American Promise? Let us know in the comments below.