It seems that Bob Baffert is facing yet another setback, doesn’t it? What took place? His pursuit of the Kentucky Derby has certainly been fraught with challenges. Do you remember the enthusiasm he displayed as he made his comeback to the pinnacle of his career after his suspension from Churchill Downs? Nonetheless, despite the lingering excitement, the journey leading up to the Run for the Roses has proven to be quite challenging for the 72-year-old trainer.

Baffert entered numerous horses in these preparatory races, yet only three are presently poised to secure a spot in the prestigious event scheduled for the first week of May: Citizen Bull and Rodriguez, with Madaket Road also in contention. However, a new contender has emerged at the top of the standings, and this racehorse is set to present a formidable challenge to Baffert and his team. Who might that be?

According to the official website of the Kentucky Derby, Burnham Square is currently in the lead with 130 points. Only one point separates him from Sandman, currently in second place with 129 points. So how did the horse race up the standings?

On April 8, Burnham Square secured an exhilarating win in the 101st edition of the $1.25 million Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland Racecourse. With jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. aboard, the three-year-old gelding staged an impressive comeback in the final stretch, edging out the frontrunner, East Avenue, by a mere nose. River Thames clinched a commendable third place in the competitive seven-horse field.

The race spanned 1 1/8 miles, with Burnham Square finishing in 1:51.33, recording the slowest time for the Blue Grass Stakes since 2007. This win granted Burnham Square 100 qualifying points, securing his place in the forthcoming Kentucky Derby on May 3. Nonetheless, even with Burnham Square’s late surge, Baffert boasts a front-running horse after a recent victory in New York.

Bob Baffert’s top horse in the Kentucky Derby standings

On April 5, 2025, at Aqueduct Racetrack, Rodriguez showcased an impressive display to secure victory in the $750,000 Wood Memorial Stakes (G2). With Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith at the helm, Rodriguez dominated the 1 1/8-mile race, leading from the outset and finishing with a time of 1:48.15. This win earned him 100 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby, positioning him fourth on the leaderboard with a cumulative total of 121.25 points.

Under the guidance of Bob Baffert, Rodriguez emerged as a colt from the inaugural crop of the 2020 Horse of the Year, Authentic. Cayala, his dam, has delivered several stakes winners, underscoring a robust pedigree. What did the 72-year-old have to say about Rodriguez?

“We’re looking for horses who can win the Kentucky Derby, and that was pretty awesome. Very impressive. This is what we have been looking for from him. It was serious time, and I’m pretty excited about it,” Baffert remarked.

It was serious time indeed, with Rodriguez recording the second best time at the Wood Memorial Stakes since 2006, only behind Mo Donegal’s time of 1:47.96 in 2022. With Citizen Bull faltering in the Santa Anita Derby, it’s no wonder Baffert was excited by Rodriguez’s dominant victory. It’s not about the points, it’s about finding the horses with the strength and resilience to stay on top during the big moments.

Observing one of his horses triumph and clinch those crucial points for a spot in the Kentucky Derby has certainly bolstered Bob Baffert’s confidence. Now, it’s a wait till May 3rd to see which horses will make it, which will stumble and whether Bob Baffert will emerge victorious at the end of it all.