Alright, horse racing fans, it’s time for the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita, and you already know this one’s gonna be a doozy. We’re talking a $300K prize and a chance for some of the hottest 3-year-olds to punch their tickets to the Kentucky Derby. But here’s the twist: it’s Bob Baffert’s world, and we’re just living in it. Three of his top horses are in the mix, and the betting host has the back of number two, not the one everyone thinks is the best!

Baffert’s got the heavy hitters: Barnes (even-money favorite), Rodriguez (9-5), and Mellencamp (6-1), and they’re all gunning for the Derby points. But let’s keep it real, this race is about more than just those Baffert horses. Enter Journalism, who already made waves by beating three of Baffert’s best in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). Is the kid gonna shock the world again? Only one way to find out.

As @myrailbirds said on Twitter: “Will one of the heavy hitting Bob Baffert horses run away with the ‘San Felipe Stakes’ at @santaanitapark 🏇 on Saturday, & punch their ticket to the Kentucky Derby? @RobdConway & @AndyMc81 debate that, then give their winner picks! 💰 Bet along at @bet365ca.” If the hot takes are what you’re looking for on who will wear the crown, then this is absolutely the race to watch. 

During the interview, betting host Andy McNamara put his stakes on Journalism and why his money’s going on it, not the more hyped Baffert stars, in his words, “I’m not going with the big, bad Baffert horses here. Not the $3.2 million Barnes, not his wildcard stablemate Rodriguez. I’m going number two, Journalism. Barnes and Rodriguez haven’t even run at this mile and a sixteenth distance — but Journalism has. The speed is good enough, it’s functional speed. He’s versatile, you can hold him back or let him jump up. You’re not going to get that overwhelming blazing speed figure, but it’s there. I think he’s going to be fast enough to get us the win — and at a decent price.”

Here’s the kicker — Journalism already beat three Baffert horses (Getaway Car, Gaming, and Mellencamp) in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2). He’s battle-tested at this distance, and that experience could be priceless. Trained by Michael McCarthy, combine that with the fact that Andy McNamara sees him as the value play of the race, and you’ve got a legitimate upset alert brewing at Santa Anita.

Bob Baffert’s Crew: Barnes, Rodriguez, and Mellencamp – Who’s gonna step up?

The San Felipe Stakes isn’t an ordinary race; it’s a qualifying competition for the Kentucky Derby. The first five to cross the finish line get awarded points: 50-25-15-10-5. Those points can help achieve Derby dreams. Barnes – the boy in the group – The golden boy. This colt cruised through the San Vicente Stakes (G2) with remarkable ease winning by 5 ½ lengths. However, there’s a caveat. Barnes has never raced beyond 7 furlongs so now the San Felipe Stakes could be the final test. Can he convert that speed into endurance, or is his stamina too flimsy for a 1 1/16-mile race?

Rodriguez is a 3-year-old colt that started competing between 2024 and 2025. He was bred by Cherokee Run and trained by Bob Baffert and competed for SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, and others. He has won several competitions at Del Mar and Santa Anita. Rodriguez’s best finish was second place to Citizen Bull in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3). With Eclipse Award winning jockey Flavien Prat there’s a lot to like, and some things to be determined. If Rodriguez does it all, he’s a threat. If not, Journalism may just sail past him.

Now, let’s get to the wild card: Mellencamp. He is yet to win and has only started twice. He has raced for SF Racing LLC, Starlight racing, Madaket Stables, lest Bashor Dianne and more. He has also competed in races at Del Mar, Los Alamitos, and sauntered at Santa Anita.

So who wins it – the Baffert machine or the Journalism narrative? We got our answers then, but for now, let us know your predictions in the comments section!