The buzz in the horse racing world is reaching fever pitch for the 156th Belmont Stakes, away from the usual “Championship Track” and heading to Saratoga Race Course for the first time. With a whopping $2 million purse up for grabs, the stakes couldn’t be higher for the field of 10 contenders. One to watch out for is Mindframe, a fierce Thoroughbred colt sired by Constitution and out of dam Walk of Stars, trained by none other than Todd Pletcher.

Heading into the 1+1⁄4 miles race, Mindframe snagged the 7-2 second-choice spot, according to David Aragona, the linemaker for the New York Racing Association. But not everyone’s convinced of Mindframe’s chances at clinching the Triple Crown as a Horse Racing pundit cast doubt on the colt’s prospects for the final leg.

Horse racing expert shares concerning stats about Mindframe’s odds at the 2024 Belmont Stakes

In a post on X, Ed DeRosa, Vice President of Content & Product Development at Horse Racing Nation, delved into the stats for the Belmont Stakes 2024, focusing keenly on Mindframe. Notably, Mindframe was gearing up for his third career start in the Triple Crown final leg. DeRosa pointed out a compelling trend: since 2015, only two 3-year-old males had clinched a Grade 1 victory on dirt in just their third career starts in May or later of their 3-year-old year—Flightline and Charlatan.

Flightline, the undefeated Thoroughbred sensation under the tutelage of trainer John W. Sadler, had a streak of jaw-dropping performances that included his triumph in the 2021 Malibu Stakes and memorable wins at the Metropolitan Handicap, Pacific Classic, and Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2022.

Meanwhile, Charlatan, trained by the renowned Bob Baffert, stormed onto the scene in 2020, showcasing remarkable talent with commanding victories. Despite a disqualification from the Arkansas Derby due to a medication violation, Charlatan’s early success solidified his reputation as a top-tier contender. As we reflect on this comparison, let’s explore why Mindframe‘s odds are so high.

How the Thoroughbred has made significant strides

Heading into Saturday’s Belmont Stakes 2024, Mindframe has already made a name for himself with two impressive victories, winning by a combined margin of 21 1/4 lengths. This level of dominance in just two starts is remarkable, showcasing his talent and potential. Both his trainer, Todd Pletcher, and co-owner, Mike Repole, are confident in Mindframe’s abilities. They believe he can make a strong showing in the Belmont Stakes despite his limited experience.

Repole expressed his optimism, saying, “He could become the freshman that is the star on the varsity.“ It’s worth noting that Mindframe is the only horse in the race who has never competed in a stakes race. He will start from post position nine, with jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. on board.

As fans worry about Ed DeRosa’s earlier stats, Repole himself shared before the concern arose, saying, “Whether he comes in first by five or fifth by 10, he fits. We are the freshest horse in the race. Is that an advantage or a disadvantage? I guess we’ll find out Saturday.“

With Sierra Leone installed as the 9-5 morning line favorite and other top contenders like Seize The Grey and Mystik Dan, all eyes will be on Mindframe as he hopes to become the new kid on the block. Could the rookie surprise us all? Share your thoughts in the comments below!