“I would have laughed so hard,” Jessica Pegula admitted, over the thought of making it to the US Open finals. The American WTA star initiated the season with average levels but managed to rise to the top with her commendable consistency. Her rival Aryna Sabalenka on the other side, went through ups and downs, personally as well as professionally. But now, Aryna is back in form to give her best. None of the players are ready to allow any space for their rival to take control. But who among the two is more likely to win?

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula: Preview

Currently holding the world No. 2 spot, Aryna Sabalenka made it to the finals after remarkable wins over Priscilla Hon, Lucia Bronzetti, Ekaterina Alexandrova, Elise Mertens, Qinwen Zheng, and Emma Navarro. She only dropped one set and won 57% of all points played during this competitive journey. The Belarusian has a great record over the last 9 years, winning 69% of her matches (363-165). In 2024, she has a 29-6 record on hard courts, and her overall match record this year is 45-11. Sabalenka’s best results in 2024 include titles at the Australian Open and Cincinnati, with wins over Zheng and Pegula in the finals.

Jessica Pegula, on the other side of the court, made the final by defeating Shelby Rogers, Sofia Kenin, Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, Diana Shnaider, Iga Swiatek, and Karolina Muchova. She dropped one set and won 55% of all points played. The 30-year-old’s best results in 2024 include winning titles in Berlin, where she beat Anna Kalinskaya, and in Toronto, where she defeated Amanda Anisimova. Her overall match record this year is 36-11, with a strong 26-6 performance on hard courts. Her best result was reaching the quarterfinals back in 2022, but this season, she has made it to the title match.

Sabalenka vs. Pegula: Head-to-head

The head-to-head table between Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula keeps updating frequently. While the American WTA star experienced a notable rise in her rankings, her showdown against the world no.2 was recorded in the deeper rounds. With 7 matches played so far, the Belarusian WTA star leads the trail with a 5-2 difference. Their last showdown was recorded at the Cincinnati Masters, which was probably one of the best events for Pegula.

Although seeming quite dominant with a massive win streak, Sabalenka levels turned out to be on the heavier side. Therefore, she took the title home with a final scoreline of 6-3, 7-5. Here’s a list of the other matches played between the two:

• 2023 WTA Finals: Pegula won 6-4, 6-3
• 2022 WTA Finals: Sabalenka won 6-3, 7-5
• 2022 Rome: Sabalenka won 6-1, 6-4
• 2021 Madrid: Sabalenka won 6-1, 6-2
• 2020 Roland Garros: Sabalenka won 6-3, 6-1
• 2020 Cincinnati: Pegula won 6-2, 2-6, 6-3

Prediction: Sabalenka to win in three sets

“No, I don’t really care… Even if it’s going to be Pegula, I don’t care. I’m ready to face whoever.” Sabalenka confidently shared this mindset after her semifinal win over Emma Navarro. With this level of determination and to recover the loss that she incurred last year, The Tiger looks well-prepared for the final showdown against Jessica Pegula at the US Open.

Sabalenka enters the match with a powerful game, highlighted by her 8 aces and 35 winners in her semifinal against Navarro. She won 74% of points behind her first serve, showing her dominance in serving. Pegula, on the other hand, fought back from a set down to defeat Karolina Muchova in three sets. While she only recorded 1 ace, Pegula showed dominant levels, because of which she managed to save 7 breakpoints, along with breaking her opponent 5 times.

Although both players are in great form, Sabalenka’s more aggressive style and a firm grip on hard courts may give her the edge. Pegula, with her ability to grind and stay consistent, would surely pose a tough challenge against her, but the Belarusian’s skills could overpower her. Fans can expect a close battle like never before, with Sabalenka winning in three sets.