Amanda Ribas and Mackenzie Dern will headline the first UFC event of 2025, in a rematch at the UFC Fight Night Vegas event on January 11th. The first time they met in the Octagon, both Ribas and Dern were just getting started in the UFC, and Ribas handed Dern her first UFC loss.

But this time around, things are very different – the stakes are much higher. After all, both women are currently in the top ten, and a win is likely to see the winner get one step closer to a title shot. In light of their headliner rematch, we will compare and contrast Ribas and Dern’s stats, how their fighting styles compare with each other, and gauge who has a better chance of winning the fight.

Ribas vs. Dern- age, height, walkaround weight, reach, and more

The #8 ranked Amanda Ribas and #6 ranked Mackenzie Dern have many similarities. Both, for instance, are 31 years old and started their pro-MMA careers within two years of each other; 2014 for Ribas and 2016 for Dern. Both are also pretty similar in size, with the exception that Ribas also fights in the women’s 125-pound division, and both have almost matching numbers in terms of the number of bouts they’ve had on their records; 18 for Ribas and 19 for Dern.

Mackenzie Dern walks around at an average of 125 pounds which is the flyweight limit when she’s not fighting. This was evidenced by the fact that she weighed in at 125.8 pounds on fight day during UFC 298. Amanda Ribas walks around at a reported 143 pounds as her walkaround weight, as evidenced by her fight-day weight at UFC 257, piling on a reported ‘two stone’ in 24 hours after officially weighing in at the limit.

Both women share a similar stature at 5’4″, however, Ribas has a reach of 66 inches – an advantage of three inches over Dern’s 63 inches. Both women have five losses, despite Dern having two more wins on her record at 14, compared to Ribas’ 12.

In terms of their fighting styles, both women are starkly different. Amanda Ribas is a black belt in both Judo and Jiu-Jitsu and has four wins by submission. However, out of 12 career wins, she has four wins by knockout as well. On the other hand, Mackenzie Dern hasn’t KO’d anyone inside the Octagon yet, with all seven of her finishes coming by submission on her 14-win record.

The daughter of the legendary Megaton Diaz – 7th degree BJJ coral belt under Royler Gracie – prefers to take her opponents to deep waters and submit them there. With Ribas handing Dern her first loss via unanimous decision in 2019, it’ll be interesting to see how each fighter has evolved over the last (almost) six years, and who is more likely to walk out the winner of January 11th.

Prediction, record, and stats comparison between Amanda Ribas & Mackenzie Dern

In terms of fighting styles, and finishes inside the Octagon, Amanda Ribas is a more well-rounded fighter than Mackenzie Dern, who is more of a grappling specialist. So, Ribas can rely on her stand-up prowess and volume punching to overwhelm Dern on the feet and move her way towards a win-by-finish, if not a judge’s decision.

On the other hand, Dern is a decorated grappler, with numerous accolades such as ADCC champion, Pan-American champion, European champion, and World jiu-jitsu champion to name a few. It’s safe to assume that if Dern manages to get Ribas to the ground, she could find a submission victory, or establish dominance in terms of ground control.

In terms of striking, Ribas has a higher stat landing an average of four and a half significant strikes on her opponents compared to Dern’s three significant strikes. Although Amanda Ribas has been finished more times via KO than Dern, it only means that she has a proclivity to stand in the pocket and trade. Moreover, her striking experience has enabled her to absorb only three strikes per minute on average, as opposed to Dern absorbing an average of four in the same time frame.

Moreover, Ribas statistically has a better wrestling record in MMA than Dern, with an average of two takedowns landed (at a 51% takedown accuracy) per fight. On the other hand, despite her incredible grappling accolades, Dern has managed to land less than one takedown per fight. Even when they met the first time, Mackenzie Dern failed to establish a meaningful wrestling offense against Amanda Ribas.

Finally, despite Dern showing marked improvement in her striking under coach Jason Parillo, it remains to be seen if she has the power to knock Ribas (or anyone for that matter) out at this stage. On the other hand, Ribas is more seasoned in the stand-up department, and can really put Dern in danger if she finds the right openings and opportunities. In that sense, Amanda Ribas has a better chance to win against Mackenzie Dern, particularly if this fight remains standing. However, this is MMA, and anything can happen, even Dern overwhelming Ribas with her grappling and submission skills. So, it remains to be seen, who the winner will be.

In that regard, who do you think will win between Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas? Will it be a decision victory or loss, like last time, or will there be a finish in the fight? Do let us know what you think in the comments down below.