UFC Tampa: Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley Prediction, Stats, and Fight Breakdown

The city of Tampa is locked and loaded to host the year-ending UFC event, after yet another eventful 12 months for the CEO, Dana White and Co. After registering the biggest gate ever at UFC 306, the 55-year-old is planning to close 2024 with a banger of a welterweight showdown between Joaquin Buckley and former interim champion, Colby Covington.

Colby Covington’s recent UFC record has been a mixed bag, as he’s struggled to find consistency ever since losing out on all his three title shots against Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards. So, this bout against surging welterweight Joaquin Buckley is a big opportunity, not only for him but for his younger rival as well. As a part of the preview, let’s take a look at the statistics of the two 170-pounders.

UFC Tampa: Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley stats

Despite having a two-year headstart, it appears that Colby Covington doesn’t have as much experience as Joaquin Buckley. The Louisville native has competed in 26 professional fights, racking up 20 wins, at the expense of 6 defeats, with an impressive 14 career knockouts. For Covington, though, he’s competed in a total of 21 fights and has a significantly higher win percentage than Buckley with 17 wins and 4 losses. Also, the former interim champion has 8 career finishes to his name.

Moving over to the other set of stats is their physical build, as ‘Chaos’ takes the advantage when it comes to their height. Colby Covington boasts a one-inch taller stature than Joaquin Buckley, standing 5 foot and 11 inches tall, which means ‘New Mansa’ stands 5 foot and 10 inches tall. However, both of them have the same state when it comes to the weight, 170 pounds.

The height advantage hasn’t necessarily translated into a reach advantage for Covington because the ball’s in Buckley’s court here. ‘New Mansa’ has a four-inch reach advantage over ‘Chaos’, as stats claim his reach is 76 inches in comparison to Covington’s 72 inches. But to get a bigger picture of how the fight pans out, let’s make a further analysis of their recent performances.

Covington vs. Buckley breakdown and prediction

Colby Covington is a highly accomplished grappler who’s got an endless gas tank. However, his performances haven’t been up to the mark as he’s coming off a loss in a lackluster showing against former champion Leon Edwards at UFC 296. ‘Chaos’s last win came in 2022 when he defeated former friend-turned-bitter-rival Jorge Masvidal, in what many claimed to be a snoozefest.

For Joaquin Buckley, though, he’s been successful in finding consistency as he’s on an impressive 5-fight winning streak, with three of those wins coming via knockouts. Also, his reach advantage and recent run of form do give rise to the possibility of another knockout on the horizon, given that Covington struggled with Leon Edwards, who is also primarily a striker like ‘New Mansa’.

For the oddsmakers, they believe in Joaquin Buckley’s capability and predict him finishing off the former interim champion. The 30-year-old heads into the fight at UFC on ESPN 63 as a -280 favorite, compared to Colby Covington, who’s the +225 underdog. Do you agree with the numbers for the highly anticipated welterweight bout? Drop your predictions below.