One of the matchups that has the fight fans all excited for UFC Fight Night 250 in Saudi Arabia is the one between Sergei Pavlovich and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. This clash will decide if Rozenstruik gets to rise in the top 10 heavyweight list, or if Pavlovich will get a fight against a fighter in the top 3. Needless to say, this heavyweight bout is going to be essential to determine their velocity in the title race. 

But how do the heavyweight contenders look prior to the bout in Riyadh? Let’s take a look at their standings before UFC Fight Night 250 and try to predict the outcome of the fight based on their stats, shall we?

Pavlovich vs. Rozenstruik head-to-head record and stats comparison

On February 1, Pavlovich will step into the Octagon with a professional MMA record of 18 wins and 3 defeats. Well, he’s currently on a 2-fight losing streak, with his last 2 losses coming from Tom Aspinall and Alexander Volkov. Meanwhile, 15 of his 18 victories have come via KO/TKO. No doubt, the Russian heavyweight fighter has a knack for finishing his fights with knockdowns and his striking accuracy of 44% surely reflects that. He’s a striking machine with 5.86 significant strikes landing per minute. Pavlovich has defended 75% of the takedowns that came his way, so his fights rarely go to the mats. This explains why he does not have any submission wins.

On the other hand, Rozenstruik is coming in with a record of 15 wins and 5 defeats. And unlike his opponent, the Surinamese has a 2-fight winning streak. Although his bouts have recorded that he sends 3.75 significant strikes per minute, he’s much more accurate with 49% striking accuracy. Well, he has won 13 of his fights by knockouts. The stats for grappling are the same for both the fighters, with 75% takedown defense. 

Pavlovich stands 6 ft 3 inches tall with a reach of 84 inches. That’s a big disadvantage for ‘Bigi Boy’ as he’s 1 inch shorter and has an extended reach of only 78 inches. Another trouble that ‘Bigi Boy’ might face in the bout is Pavlovich’s natural stance. He’s a southpaw after all. And going up against a southpaw often throws the martial artists off balance.

But how are these numbers going to affect the fight? To be honest, mixed martial arts is a sport that’s completely unpredictable. Anything can happen in a fight that’s filled with twists and turns. But these stats often help us take a pick. So who has the higher chance of winning this heavyweight bout? Let’s find out!

Sergei Pavlovich vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik prediction

Both the fighters are striking experts and plan on finishing their fights with a knockout. Both of them have won 3 of their last 5 fights. And both of them have knocked out some of the toughest opponents in the heavyweight realm. Rozenstruik has claimed victory over Junior dos Santos, Alistair Overeem, and Augusto Sakai, and all three came via KOs. Meanwhile, Pavlovich KOed Curtis Blaydes, Tai Tuivasa, and Derrick Lewis. Before losing the chance to wear the interim heavyweight belt against Tom Aspinall, the Russian went on a 6-fight winning streak – all of which came from first-round KOs. 

With the experience that he has garnered and the fighters that he has knocked out, we can assume that Pavlovich can beat Rozenstruik at UFC Riyadh. He does have the habit of throwing a high volume of significant strikes capable of knocking his opponents out cold. But Rozenstruik can bring in the experience he garnered from the 85 kickboxing matches he fought before stepping into the Octagon. He’s more accurate and technical when it comes to striking. 

In the end, it’d come down to who’s able to absorb more strikes. ‘Bigi Boy’ has absorbed 2.74 strikes per minute, but the number for Pavlovich lies at 5.03 strikes per minute. Nevertheless, it’s going to be a pretty close matchup with quite a bit of action entertaining the crowd.

Who do you think takes this one? Drop down to the comments below and let us know what your predictions are.