It only took a couple of words to break hearts across the MMA world. “One of the paws is not doing too well.” Dan Hooker’s admission of a fractured hand instantly crushed the hopes of fight fans who had been drooling over his scheduled showdown with Justin Gaethje. But the war gods didn’t leave us hanging for long.

In stepped Rafael Fiziev, a name that still stings for ‘The Highlight’ but offers an equally electrifying matchup. With the co-main event of UFC 313 now set, all eyes turn to this rematch. Will Gaethje prove that his first win over the current #11 contender was no fluke? Or will Fiziev, fresh off a long layoff, pull off the upset? Before diving into what makes this fight so compelling, let’s take a look at the numbers.

UFC 313: Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev Stats

When these two last met at UFC 286, chaos ensued. Gaethje’s relentless pressure, calf kicks, and heavy hands edged out a majority decision win, leaving Fiziev battered but unbroken. But here’s the twist, despite that loss, Fiziev enters UFC 313 as the slight favorite to win. The stakes are high, and the matchup is as evenly contested as ever.

Let’s break it down. Gaethje, ranked No. 3 at lightweight, holds the experience edge. But his last outing at UFC 300 saw him flatlined by Max Holloway, raising questions about his durability at 36. Fiziev, meanwhile, hasn’t fought since tearing his ACL against Mateusz Gamrot in September 2023. The long layoff and short-notice nature of this fight make him a wildcard.

So, what did we learn from their first bout? Gaethje had the power advantage, while Fiziev’s speed kept things interesting. Gaethje’s calf kicks were lethal, disrupting Fiziev’s movement. But Fiziev did land body kicks that left their mark. The key question—can ‘Ataman’ handle another war, or will Gaethje’s relentless attack break him once again?

As of February 2025, Gaethje holds a 26-5 MMA record, with 20 wins by knockout, four by decision, and one by submission. Fiziev, on the other hand, is 12-3, boasting eight knockouts, one submission, and three decision victories.

Gaethje vs. Fiziev Breakdown and Prediction

Stats only reveal part of the battle. ‘The Highlight’ is known for his violent, fan-favorite style. He thrives in chaos. Fiziev, a Muay Thai specialist, brings precision striking but has yet to prove he can withstand the sustained pressure Gaethje brings. And then there’s that ACL injury, will Fiziev’s movement be the same? Gaethje’s calf kicks could test it early.

The fight is as close as it gets. Justin Gaethje has the experience, the win over Fiziev, and the relentless pressure. But Fiziev however, has speed, striking precision, and could capitalize on any openings in ‘The Highlight’s defense. Either way, expect fireworks. Though Gaethje is coming off an 11-month break, he spent his training camp preparing for a five-round war with Hooker. That means he’s conditioned, ready for a dogfight. Fiziev, stepping in on short notice, has to find a way to finish early, because if this goes into deep waters, Gaethje’s gas tank and relentless attack could be too much.

Fiziev’s key to victory? Use speed, stay mobile, and attack the body. Gaethje’s path? More of the same, calf kicks, forward pressure, and breaking Fiziev’s rhythm, because nothing says victory like a wild, borderline reckless celebratory backflip off the cage.

Could this fight end in a knockout? Both fighters have the power and aggression to make it happen. Or will we see another three-round war like their first meeting? What do you think? KO or decision? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!