No UFC card is complete without a thrilling heavyweight showdown, and with UFC 312 set to take over Sydney this weekend, no Australian event would be complete without one of the Tafa brothers. This time, it’s Justin Tafa stepping into the Octagon, ready to welcome Tallison Teixeira to the promotion in what promises to be an explosive matchup.

Teixeira, making his UFC debut, has been a wrecking force on the regional scene, and if he can bring even half of that firepower to the big stage, he’ll be a real problem in the heavyweight division. Meanwhile, Tafa is eager to bounce back from a tough decision loss last year and reestablish himself as a contender. In this article, we break down the Tafa vs. Teixeira matchup and give our official fight prediction.

Justin Tafa vs. Tallison Teixeira record & stats comparison

Both Tafa and Teixeira are strikers, which is one of the reasons fans are excited for their fight. Especially given how exciting the Brazilian is. Teixeira is just 25, compared to Tafa, who is 7 years older at 32. Although they both weighed around 265 pounds for their last fight, the debutant at 6’7″ has a decided-size advantage over the 6’1″ Tafa.

Predictably, this also means that the Brazilian has a far longer range (83″) than the Aussie’s 74″ reach. For the uninitiated, Teixeira has only fought once under the UFC umbrella- his September 2024 Dana White‘s Contender Series bout against Arthur Lopes. The Brazilian won that fight via first-round TKO. This means that the advanced stats we have for the Brazilian are of a sample size of one.

But within this limited sample size, Teixeira’s numbers are pretty impressive and compare very favorably to Tafa. The debuting heavyweight landed, brace yourself for this, over fourteen significant strikes per minute on average in his last fight! This is simply unheard of, especially in the heavier weight classes. If the 25-year-old averages even half of that in his UFC stint, he will be a problem.

On the other hand, Tafa averages only about four significant strikes on his opponents so far. However, Teixeira’s wild, throw-the-kitchen-sink comes at a cost. In his DWCS clash, the Brazilian absorbed over nine significant strikes per minute on average, which will be unacceptably high against higher-level competition. Tafa, in sharp contrast, absorbs only about five significant strikes per minute and has proven he can take a punch. So who wins? Let’s discuss.

Tafa vs. Teixeira UFC 312 prediction

This is a tricky one to predict. Teixeira is so explosive and so dangerous that it is tempting to pick him on his stats alone and his seven first-round finishes. But that also means that Teixeira has never gone into a second round, and may gas out if asked to fight more than five minutes.

On the other hand, Justin Tafa’s chin has proven to be remarkably durable in his career. The Aussie has been knocked out only once in his eleven-fight career, and not because he is afraid to get into a good old-fashioned bar brawl when given the chance. While Tafa doesn’t have the greatest defense, it is still pretty good by heavyweight standards.

Maybe Teixeira really does manage to blow away Tafa for another first-round finish, or maybe he’s the next Robelis Despaigne. We have our money on the latter being the case. This is due in part to a lot of unknown elements about Teixeira’s game who is taking on a wily veteran in Tafa. And as mentioned, the Aussie has proven himself against his fair share of explosive knockout artists. We have Tafa by decision. What is your prediction for the Tafa-Teixeira heavyweight clash at UFC 312?