UFC 311 almost fell into the void when Arman Tsarukyan announced that he would be unable to fight Islam Makhachev. Thankfully, Dana White and Co. called up Renato Moicano and brought him up as the replacement for ‘Ahalkalakets’. Even Makhachev was ready to take on ‘Money’ and defend his lightweight championship title for the 4th time, stating, “Smash my opponent, that’s it, no matter who is gonna be in front of me. Let’s go.”

But how does the matchup look from the statistical point of view? Let’s take a look at the records and stats of the UFC 311 main eventers, as they get ready to lock horns at the Intuit Dome, Los Angeles. After all, it’s often the stats and predictions that make up a large part of a fight like this.

UFC 311: Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano stats

Makhachev has been dominating the MMA realm for a long time now. He hasn’t faced a single defeat ever since Adriano Martins dropped him with a punch in round 1 at UFC 192. It was his first defeat following a 12-fight win streak. And now, he’s boasting a massive 14-fight win streak after that lone loss. Needless to say, he has the record suitable for a champion at 26-1. And now, even Dana White has acknowledged him as the pound-for-pound number-one fighter. 

On the other hand, Moicano has a professional MMA record of 20 wins and five defeats with ‘Money’ also having a single draw on his record. Coming to UFC 311, the Brazilian is on a 4-fight winning spree. His last fight was against Benoit Saint-Denis, the same opponent that Dustin Poirier defeated to get a title shot against Makhachev. Is Benoit Saint-Denis the gateway to a lightweight championship? Not likely, but the coincidence is uncanny. 

Makhachev stands 5’10” tall, with a reach of 70 inches. But his Brazilian opponent is one inch taller and has a 2-inch reach advantage. Yet, the Dagestani has a striking accuracy of 59% and has defended 61% of significant strikes. His takedown average goes about 3.19 takedowns per 15 minutes, with 90% takedown defense. Meanwhile, Moicano has an accuracy of 49% with 60% striking defense. He has secured 1.87 takedowns in 15 minutes with 72% takedown defense.

So, what would the fight between Islam Makhachev and Renato Moicano actually look like? While their measurements are nigh on the same, anything could happen in the Octagon. After all, it’s a fight made on just one day’s notice. In that light, let’s take a look at their fighting styles and try to make a prediction. 

Makhachev vs. Moicano breakdown and prediction

The fighting community often looks at the Dagestani fighters with a stereotype that they’re excellent wrestlers, but poor strikers. But things change when it comes to Islam Makhachev. The lightweight champion has no doubt defeated 12 of his opponents via submissions but has also secured 5 wins by knockouts. This proves that he’s a pretty well-rounded fighter in the lightweight realm. He even defeated Charles Oliveira, one of the strongest grapplers the lightweight division has ever seen – dropping him first on the feet, before rushing the Brazilian and choking him out with an arm triangle.

But Moicano is also a fighter prompt in grappling. He has won 10 of his fights via submission. While his chances of winning are pretty slim, he does have the confidence of a warrior. During the official weigh-ins for UFC 311, he told Makhachev that he was “I don’t give a f–k. I cannot afford to f—–g lose, and that’s true.”

The only thing that Moicano has is his cornerman, Marcos da Matta. He’s the same coach who would have cornered Arman Tsarukyan. The team has already analyzed Makhachev and made plans against him. All Moicano needs to do, is follow the instructions. But the outcome can change at any moment. 

Who do you think would win the main event at UFC 311? Drop down to the comments section and keep the conversation flowing.