The middleweight throne hasn’t witnessed a change in power ever since Dricus Du Plessis took the reigns after defeating Sean Strickland at UFC 297. Did you know he was also the first fighter to defend the 185 lbs title successfully since Alex Pereira won it in November 2022? He did that against former champ Israel Adesanya in August last year. But now it’s time for ‘Tarzan’ and ‘Stillknocks’ to clash once again and settle the disputes from their highly competitive and controversial first fight.

As the date for the rematch inches closer, the fighting community wonders if there will be a shift in power at UFC 312.  If you’re also wondering the same, come join us as we look through the middleweight champ and the challenger’s numbers and try to predict the outcome of the fated rematch. After all, it’s often the numbers that set the expectations for a fight. 

Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland record & stats comparison

Dricus Du Plessis is on a roll with a 10-fight win streak. He has secured a professional MMA record of 22 wins and just 2 defeats. Out of his victories, 9 came via KO/TKO and 11 from submissions. Standing 6’1” tall with an extended reach of 76 inches, the middleweight champion has accurately landed 49% of his strikes and succeeded in 50% of his takedown attempts. ‘Stillknocks’ loves to send massive volumes of strikes with about 6.18 significant strikes landed per minute. But that doesn’t mean he doesn’t like to wrestle. He has a record of 3.04 takedowns landed over 15 minutes. 

On the other hand, Sean Strickland is on a 1-fight win streak. Well, he did deserve a rematch against DDP since Dana White promised him one following his win over Paulo Costa at UFC 302. He has amassed 29 victories and 6 losses. But unlike Du Plessis, ‘Tarzan’ has more wins via decision. He has won 11 of his bouts via KO/TKO and only 4 by forcing his opponents to tap out. 

With a height of 6’1” and a reach of 76 inches, Strickland is a pretty good matchup for Dricus Du Plessis. Their height and reach are exactly the same. ‘Tarzan’ has a striking accuracy of 42%, with around 6.01 significant strikes landed per minute. His takedown accuracy is at 64%, and he has attempted 0.78 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Well, their physical attributes might be neck and neck but Strickland managed to outstrike Du Plessis the last time around. This was the main reason the result was highly contested. The American star was clearly leading in the significant strikes column but Du Plessis had the edge in ground control time. So is wrestling going to be the deciding factor? If that is the case, then expect Du Plessis to take the belt back to South Africa this weekend.

While the stats often dictate how the fights proceed, there are times when the underdog shines even when the numbers deserted him. But is Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 going to be a similar story? Let’s see how the fight might proceed at UFC 312.

Du Plessis vs. Strickland prediction

Strickland has actually been itching to take the UFC middleweight championship title back from the South African champion for a long while now. But defeating ‘Stillknocks’ is not an easy task. Du Plessis is “the best s–t fighter” according to Robert Whittaker and Adesanya. Awkward striking, but with power-packed punches. That’s how ‘Stillknocks’ got to the belt with an undefeated run in the UFC.

While ‘Tarzan’ often operates with a huge gas tank, and tries to leave his opponents breathless before trying to dominate the fight, his previous fight against Du Plessis showed him that the strategy wouldn’t work on the champ. After all, he has a similar gas tank that lasted long enough to get him a win via a split decision at UFC 297. 

Strickland usually fights on his feet, sending his fists to do the damage. However, he lacks the knockout power in his fists. His jab is almost always on point, and if he can combine it with his teep kicks, he can chip away at the champion. But here’s where the cheeky South African presents a challenge. It’s difficult to get a read on a guy who thrives on chaos. There’s barely a pattern he sets up for you to read. ‘Izzy’ was doing well until he got caught and choked out.

Strickland is miles ahead of Adesanya as a grappler, and he can take a punch too. Their last fight is proof enough. ‘Tarzan’ isn’t someone who goes down easily. He has a pretty strong neck and can absorb 4.48 significant strikes per minute while defending 61% of the significant strikes thrown at him. So, defensively, he is very sound. As much as Du Plessis loves to finish his fights and could certainly go for an early finish at UFC 312, you would need Alex Pereira-type KO power for that.

By the way, did you know Alex Pereira will be in Strickland’s corner for the fight? So there’s another challenge for DDP. 

So, it all comes down to whether DDP can take control of cardio and try to last longer in the Octagon. All things considered, we might see UFC 297 repeat itself on the 8 February 2025. Yes, that means Du Plessis has a slightly better chance of winning, at least according to the oddsmakers. He has momentum on his side.

What are your thoughts about the matchup between Du Plessis and Strickland? Who do you think has a better chance of rising victorious at UFC 312? Drop down to the debate section and keep the conversation flowing.